The title of the General back to trade on the stock exchange after being suspended at the beginning of the bargaining, and marks +8,35% 15,44 euro in the wake of the rumors of a possible ascent of the Intesa Sanpaolo . The counter of the company in trieste, not long to wait, and yesterday he bought 3% of the credit institution. A strong decrease Intesa Sanpaolo that gives 3,42% to 2,316 euros. Earnings for the other protagonist of the risiko, Mediobanca , which is a shareh older of the General , up 7% 8,63 euro. Also highlighted are the wholly owned subsidiary of the aum of the Lion, the Banca Generali , with a +3,67% 26,29 euro: may be involved in the realization of a great polo, the Italian managed savings together to Banca Fideuram.
The goal of the Ca’ de Sass is to build a pole of bancassurance in Italy, combining the activities of the General to those of Intesa Sanpaolo Life, yielding at the same time, activities outside Italy with other operators such as Allianz o Axa . However, the decision of the General to purchase 3% of the voting rights in Intesa Sanpaolo can block the expansionist ambitions of the bank because, according to the banking act, in the case of mutual holdings, who has exceeded the limit of 3% said it had frozen its voting rights beyond this threshold, and within 12 months must sell the exceeding quota.
Intesa Sanpaolo , at this point, has only one weapon to attack the Lion: the takeover bid or, more realistically, considered to be the 21 billion market capitalization of Trieste, an ops on 60% of the share capital that would fall to the limits at intersections. Tomorrow will be held the board of directors of the Lion, and in the center of the meeting there will be the release of the director general, Alberto Minali. In the week should also be held a board of directors on budget 2017 of Ca’ de Sass, but at this point, the order of the day there will be a very different view of the response of the General .
“At this point, unless Intesa Sanpaolo does not show that it had purchased 3% of the General prior to the communication of yesterday, the only strategic scenario available is that of the launch of an exchange offer seen that the hypothesis to purchase a package of securities of the 15-20% would not guarantee no control”, stress the analysts of Equita.
The negative aspect is that, in a hypothetical integration with the Intesa Sanpaolo -General , according to the analysts of Equita, the dividend 2017 of the bank by 4 billion euros, on which there is now high visibility thanks to the gain from the 800 million on Allfunds, it would be less visible, due to the complexity of the operation (in the passatto the integration between the banking and insurance industry have never had great success) and the related restructuring costs.
The alternative strategic for Intesa Sanpaolo may be represented, according to the sim, from the purchase of the share of Unicredit , equal to 8%, in Mediobanca , and the subsequent launch of an offer on the Piazzetta Cuccia. In this way, Intesa Sanpaolo , in addition to check a business more similar, would be indirectly the first member of the General with 13% and may coagulate a blocking minority in key antiscalata.
In fact, “our feeling is that Intesa Sanpaolo would have purchased a large stake in General just to avoid a takeover by or merger with Axa . The fact that the Lion has decided to prevent any action on the part of Intesa reinforces even more the recent rumor about a possible agreement with Axa “, support to analysts of Mediobanca, Securities. “And, in the case of an offer by the insurance company, the French, we do not exclude a counteroffer on the part of Allianz “.
For all these reasons, mediobanca recommend that you stay placed on the General (outperform and target price raised from 15.5 to 17 euro), while it has cut the rating this morning on the Allianz (target price to 175 euros) and on Axa (target price 25.5 euro) to neutral in a report on the insurance sector in europe. “The reason why all our double downgrade is purely fundamental, even if this possible scenario, M&A adds more conviction to our view based on the fundamentals”.
“If the action yesterday of the General could put an end to this history, and comforting the shares of Intesa , we believe that the move of the Lion, confirming the credibility of a potential action of the Intesa Sanpaolo General , widely unexpected by the market, and in contrast with the case of investment the bank made visibility on the bokk value and on return on capital. Therefore, we expect a negative reaction by the market on shares Intesa and we confirm our vision cautious on the stock”, in addition to Mediobanca
Also, Equita has reaffirmed the rating of hold on Intesa Sanpaolo with a target price of 2.9 euros, while it has raised the rating on the General from hold to buy (target price unchanged at 15 euro). “The title, General does not enter in the portfolio, in which figure already Mediobanca , because we take the time to understand the new asset allocation is final, even in the light of the developments of the story. However, the downside risk is very limited, since the General is just below our fair value, and with multiple low: price/earnings 2017 of 10.3 times,” point out analysts from the sim.
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