FRANKFURT – Brakes in Italy, in contrast to a world economy in recovery. Our Country is unique among major advanced economies for which the international monetary Fund has cut its growth forecasts for this year and next, in the update of the "World Economic Outlook". The Italian economy will grow, according to the Imf, 0.7% in 2017 (after 0.9% last year), with a reduction in the forecast of 0.2% compared to October of last year, and 0.8% in 2018, with a cut-off of 0.3% compared to the previous estimates.
annual percentage Change in Gdp in 2017
Retouching upward for advanced economies
The global framework provides a growth unchanged from the forecast of October, up 3.4% this year and 3.6% next, but with an adjustment upward for advanced economies as a whole, due to the effect of the second half of 2016, which is way better than expectations and the expectation of a fiscal stimulus by the new Government in the United States. “The global economic landscape,” said the chief economist of the Imf, and Maurice Obstfeld, in presenting the document – has begun to change in the second half of 2016. It is more likely to meet our forecast of global recovery. But the uncertainty has increased”.
The Imf lima the forecast for next year to 0.9%
Italy weigh political uncertainty and banks
the analysis of The economists of the Imf note that, since the start of the upward trend of us interest rates, long-term yields rose moderately in Europe in August, of 35 basis points in Germany, but 70 in Italy, “as a reflection of the high political uncertainty and the banking sector”.
Between the risks for the global economy remain to the downside, the Imf mentions the possibility that in the Countries which have balance-sheet problems (which include without doubt, Italy) “a continued fall in private demand and progress inadequate on the reforms (including the restructuring of bank balance sheets) might lead to a growth and an inflation rate permanently lower, with negative implications for debt dynamics”.
Moody’s has lowered the outlook for Italy. Rating confirmed
euro Area +1.6% in 2017 and 2018
The euro area will grow by 1.6% this year and next, according to the document, the Germany of 1.5% in both years, France by 1.3 and 1.6%, Spain 2.3% and 2.1%. Monetary policy in areas such as the euro should remain accommodative, says Imf, but it is not enough by itself to grow the demand: the Fund asks for a fiscal stimulus to Countries that have space in the budget (from time to time the establishment of Washington urges Germany in this sense), as well as structural reforms.
Fitch confirms the ratings of Italy, but lowers the outlook
Risks from protectionism
In the global framework, another risk identified by the Fund is the disintegration of the consensus on the benefits of economic integration and the possibility that it may intensify protectionist pressures, an implicit reference to, among other things, the positions taken by the president-elect of the United States, Donald Trump, and its effects on the rest of the world. The uncertainty about the policies of the new Us administration and its ramifications the global is the main reason for the uncertainty about the forecasts, observed the Imf.
The restriction of financial conditions is the explanation of the filing in the forecast of growth of many emerging Countries, with the exception of China, supported by stimulus public: are cut estimates for India, Brazil and Mexico.
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