“Backed by positive external factors, the Italian economy returned to growth in 2015 and the recovery will be strengthened in 2016″ Thus the new estimates of the EU Commission expecting growth of 0.6% in 2015 (unchanged compared to estimates of February) and + 1.4% in 2016 (up + 0.1% on February).
“While confidence indicators have steadily improved in recent months, the fluctuation of those fundamentals suggest that the recovery should be gradual,” he writes that the Commission also revises upwards the GDP in 2014: from – 0.5% expected in February rose to 0.4%. Brussels for the increase of the GDP to 0.6% in 2015 is sustained, “especially from exports helped by the depreciation of the euro.” And “although banks are still burdened by non-performing loans and real interest rates will remain relatively high, it is expected that the increase in exports slowly unlock new equipment investment while credit conditions will improve gradually,” the report said.
As for 2016, “the recovery will strengthen, the GDP accelerates to 1.4% with Italy that benefits of increased external demand and investment that shooting. ” And “the net depreciation of the euro could lead to gains for the expected stronger competitiveness,” with risks “upward” on the scenarios of growth and export.
Inflation in Italy positive returns in 2015: the EU Commission revises upwards the estimate of February, which then passes from -0.3% to + 0.2%. In 2016 marked acceleration to + 1.8%, compared to 1.5% forecast in February.
also revised up estimates on Italian debt in 2015 (133, 1% compared to 133% expected in February) but falls in 2016 (130.6% instead of 131.9% in February), “thanks to the nominal growth and higher primary surplus.” The EU Commission projects the debt “has a peak around 133% in 2015, despite the privatization under way that are worth about 0.5% of GDP.” Brussels revised its estimate of the debt in 2014: in February he saw a 131.9% today to 132.1% due to weak growth and the payment of debts of the pa.
Unchanged, compared with February, the estimates of the deficit Italian: from 3% in 2014 falls to 2.6% in 2015 and 2% in 2016. “It worsens slightly ‘the structural deficit in 2015: increased to 0.7% from 0 , 6% in February. But the EU sees “risks associated with possible additional expansionary measures announced in the stability law but not yet detailed.”
Unemployment down in 2015 and 2016: the EU revises downward its estimates of February and updates the 12.8% and 12.6% three months ago with a 12.4% for this year and next. A drop “marginal” in 2015 that “stabilizes” in 2016 with “the discouraged returning workforce” and “thanks to the cutting of the wedge” that reduces the pressure.
Moscovici and the hole pensions “It is the responsibility of the Italian authorities to say what measures it intends to take to offset losses and ensure that Italy remains in the expected track of the Stability Pact,” warned Commissioner Economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici when asked as judge hole in the accounts after the ruling on pensions. To Italy, “the biggest challenge is the high debt growth remains weak so you have to articulate a prudent fiscal policy with a reform agenda that is ambitious,” he added.
Eurozone “Economic growth in the EU is benefiting from a tailwind positive” that allows you to revise upwards its estimates for GDP. Eurozone in 2015 rose to + 1.5% (+ 0.2% compared to the forecast winter) and in 2016 to + 1.9%, in the EU-28 rooms respectively + 1.8% and + 2, 1%.
“Many different factors” in the short term that are helping a recovery in Europe that would “otherwise moderate.” These prices “relatively low” oil, global growth “firm”, the continuous depreciation of the euro, the economic policies of EU support, “the significant impact” of Quantitative easing by the ECB, EU tax policy “broadly neutral” In addition to structural reforms and the Plan Juncker Investment that “should bear fruit over time.” Domestic demand is the main contributor to GDP growth, with an acceleration in private consumption this year and a rebound in investment next.
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