(rewrites partially integrates comments Moscovici) MILAN / BRUSSELS, May 5 (Reuters) – The picture is not very different from that painted three months ago with the estimates in winter: in the opinion of the European Commission the Italian economy promises a recovery that remains “gradual”, while the degree of optimism on the entire euro area continues to grow. A possible burden on public finances, the inevitable fallout on growth, could also come as a bolt from the blue from the rejection of the Consulta failure to inflation adjustment of pensions exceeding 1,500 euro in 2012-2013. The numbers put on paper by today ‘spring estimates’ speak for themselves. Particularly eloquent projections of GDP, in the case of Italy still to 0.6% this year and adjusted upwards by one tenth on the next, passing from 1.3% to 1.4% assumed in February. Confontando sizes, the estimate on the euro zone goes to 1.5% from 1.3% in 2015, reaching 1.9% in 2016. The title of the report dedicated to the entire euro area speaks of a recovery driven by “plain sailing”, against the “gradual” is looming for Italy. locomotive of recovery is in the case of the euro area especially domestic demand this year and the next revival of investment, while the modest 0.6% in 2015 will help Italian first channel exports, helped by the exchange rate depreciation . Since exports and investments should get the boost it will bring 2016 to a growth of 1.4%. Brussels also observed as the effect ‘q’ ECB is generally positive for the countries in the most unfavorable credit conditions – such as Italy – but as “in some member countries, ‘buffer’ of relatively low capital and high level of bad debts may reduce the positive effects of the expansionary measures ECB “. More …
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