The European Commission confirms the estimates of GDP and deficits of Italy – The Republic

MILAN – Brussels confirms the estimates of the main balance sheet data of Italy in the update of the spring, but the Eurozone goes to another speed so that – with the exception of Cyprus, the only country in recession in 2015 – only Finland and Greece show recovery rates below the beautiful country.
The European Commission has confirmed the estimate of deficit / GDP Italian is this year, to 2.6%, both the ‘Next year, down 2% (this year the government expects a deficit / GDP ratio at 2.6% and 1.8% next year). Replicated the estimate, compared to last February, also with regard to the growth: the GDP is expected to grow by 0.6% during 2015 (the government estimates a + 0.7%), while the ‘Next year there is a slight improvement on the horizon to + 1.4% (from + 1.3% in the forecast winter and the government is in line with a + 1.4%). Still, the budget in structural terms will improve by about a quarter of a percentage point this year (from 0.9% in relation to the potential GDP to 0.7%), with a “slight decline” in 2016 to -0.9 %.

The moves of Mario Draghi, who started the Quantitative easing to revive the Eurozone inflation, “has had a stronger impact than expected in February,” he admitted Pierre Moscovici presenting forecasts. In fact, the estimated price has been revised upwards: in Italy there will be deflation this year. Brussels has revised upwards the estimates indicate that in 2015 the inflation rate will be 0.2% (-0.3% estimated in the forecast winter). Next year, price growth will jump to 1.8% (1.5% the previous estimate). This estimate incorporates an additional increase in import prices, including energy, and the VAT increase planned by the Budget 2015 as a safeguard for the achievement of the budgetary targets. The government estimates 0.3% this year and 1% next year.

When asked by reporters in the room, Moscovici said that the Italian public finances were assessed “and the national debt continues to be very high. The biggest challenge for Italy “is the one linked to the debt ,” with growth remains weak. ” The invitation is to “articulate a prudent fiscal policy with a reform agenda that remains ambitious.” The Italian public debt will reach this year’s “peak”, equal to 133.1% of GDP, before declining next year, at 130.6%.

The Commissioner for Economic Affairs said that “a genuine cyclical recovery is now under way” in Europe, “the data also confirm” the confidence of consumers to consumption and industrial production. In fact, the area with the single currency is a significant improvement of the forecasts with a rise from 0.2% of the current Winter weather + 1.5% for the current year, while next year will rise to 1.9%.

Returning to Italy, particularly in the labor market, in the form of detail on the beautiful country emphasizes the slowness of the recovery. The unemployment will amount to 12.4% this year and in 2016, with a slight improvement compared to the estimates in February.

On the eve of the publication of the European economic outlook is was quite agitated for Italy: in the hands of Pier Carlo Padoan, economy minister, broke the grain of the rejection by the Consulta of stop the revaluation of social security checks decreed in the Save-Italy weblog Monti-Fornero. One detail that engineers are still considering in terms of numbers, but on the public accounts of previous years and futri could weigh 13 billion, even if the account rises by the hour and – as reconstructs Republic on newsstands – There are studies that speak of 16.6 billion. Obviously, from Brussels did not comment until the figures are not definitive, but it came the usual request to compensate evenutali budget shortfalls in the Document of economics and finance: “It ‘competence of the Italian authorities to say what are the measures to be taken to ensure that Italy will remain on track, “he said about Moscovici. The indication is that the political commitment to the stakes of the Stability and Growth Pact must not fail, even in the face of this news. Even so, looking back to the 3% deficit / GDP of 2014, additional spaces for resources does not seem be any.

The same request not to deviate from the shared programs we read between the lines in the last part of the report dedicated to the beautiful country, which says that there are “risks” to the budget estimates 2016 “related to possible additional expansionary measures announced in the stability program, but not yet detailed”.

The Commission’s economic forecasts for Italy, spring 2015

Forecast	2013	2014	2015	2016
GDP (% y / y growth)	-1.7	-0.4	0.6	1.4
Inflation (% y / y)	1.3	0.2	0.2	1.8
Unemployment (%)	12.1	12.7	12.4	12.4
Deficit (% of GDP)	-2.9	-3	-2.6	-2
Debt (% of GDP)	128.5	132.1	133.1	130.6
Current account (% of GDP)	0.9	2	2.2	2.2

The Commission’s economic forecasts for Italy, winter 2015

Forecast	2013	2014	2015	2016
GDP (% y / y growth)	-1.9	-0.5	0.6	1.3
Inflation (% y / y)	1.3	0.2	-0.3	1.5
Unemployment (%)	12.2	12.8	12.8	12.6
Deficit (% of GDP)	-2.8	-3	-2.6	-2
Debt (% of GDP)	127.9	131.9	133	131.9
Current account (% GDP)	0.9	1.8	2.6	2.6

The government forecasts (Def April 2015)

Forecast	2015	2016	2017
GDP (% y / y growth)	0.7	1.4	1.5
Deficit (% of GDP)	-2.6	-1.8	-0.8
Public debt (% of GDP)	132.5	130.9	127.4
Unemployment (%)	12.3	11.8	11.4
Inflation (% y / y)	0.3	1	1.5