In December, prices rebound more than expected, but not enough time to get out from the quagmire of deflation. In fact, a decrease on annual basis of prices not happened for the past 57 years.
In the month of December 2016, according to the preliminary estimates by Istat, the national index of consumer prices recorded an increase of 0.4% compared to the previous month and up 0.5% against December 2015. However, in the average year consumer prices recorded a negative change of 0.1%, below the +0.1% of 2015. It was from 1959 that there hadn’t been a negative trend in prices, down 0.4%, while in 1980, inflation reached south american rhythms with a maximum of 21.2%.
The year opens in the sign of price increases
A given, the one in 2016 that says a lot about the weakness of household spending despite the statistical review of the rise of Istat at the beginning of December, calculated according to ref. research, half a percentage point in the last two years.
core inflation, calculated net of fresh food and energy products, however, remains in positive territory (+0,5%), though slowing growth from +0.7% in 2015. The resurgence of inflation in December 2016, is fed by transport (+2,6%), energy non-regulated (+2.4%) and from the food manufactured products (+1,8%).
After 34 months of changes in inflation is negative, prices are back to record a positive variation (+0,1% from 0.4% as of November), while the growth rate of prices of services accelerates, reaching +0.9% (was +0.5% in November). On an annual basis, there are three components deflattivi: communication (by 3.1%) housing and energy (down 1.9%) and education (by 0.9%).
In the shopping cart the prices of food goods and of those for the care of the house and of the person grow 0.4% in terms of cyclical and 0.6% y / y (down by 0.1% in November). The rebound in prices in December was not affected by the recent Christmas shopping: according to the Coop was on the levels of the previous year.
The taking is in the right direction
The rise in prices gives a breath of fresh air to companies and distributors, but will continue? “Yes,” answers Paolo Mameli, senior economist of the research department of Intesa Sanpaolo -. This is a sign of "normalization". However, the trend will be very slow because, once you become less than the statistical effect on the energy, will prevail in the dynamic absolutely contained prices core. For 2017, we expect an increase in consumer prices of at least 1% and, after three years of stagnation.
The ascent of prices is good for the industry and distributors? “Certainly deflation hurts to commercial and industrial enterprises – pressed Giorgio Santambrogio, of the group VéGé (5.5 billion of the estimated revenues for 2016), but we refer to the sender of the requests for contract renewals with increases of price lists, unmotivated, without increases in the prices of raw materials”. Last year, the prices of consumer products in the big distribution have dropped, according to Iri, at an average of 0,3/0,4%. “They are motivated increases; stresses Santambrogio – coffee, oil and sugar (5-8% of the touches required) but for the rest no. Not can we afford it. However, the increases we will see them on the shelves from April.”
From the front of the industry, Giuseppe Ambrosi, owner of the homonymous company of the dairy sector and the president of Assolatte, explains that in the two years 2015/16 the dairy industry has made deflation, but, with the soaring prices of milk by 15-20% on the end of the year, “by 2017, we expect a significant remodeling of consumer prices. We estimate an increase of the final price of 6-7 per cent, to which must be added the increase in the general costs. In the end, we should not be very far from the 10%”.
For the Ecb more difficult to ignore the critics of Qe
In the fund for oil prices will be up “until after the summer – expects John Zucchi, vice president of the oil -. Italy has had a decline of more than 40% of the production that has resulted in an increase between 35% and 50% of the price at the origin. The blend 100% Italian is worth only 15% of the sales on the shelf but, in spite of play a role of price premium, it will be unlikely that the industry or the distribution to absorb increases so consistent”. A similar situation difficulty is on the market of the blend in the community.
With the inflation that peeps returns to the comparison between industry and retailers? “I’m afraid so,” concludes Santambrogio -. I expect that the brand industry, on the one hand, to press on prices, but on the other hand, increases in promotional pressure. With a widening of the spread of the promotional pressure between a market leader and brand name of the distributor”.
© Reproduction reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment