Istat: the end of the recession is near but unemployment rises – Rai News

Istat: the end of the recession is near but unemployment rises – Rai News

The real sick continues to be the labor market still in a “difficult, with levels of occupations stagnant” and a growing number of people searching, fruitless, of a place. The collapse in oil prices also would have no positive effect for Italy

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Rome December 30, 2014 End of recession after all. It could be summed up as the last note monthly 2014 Istat on economic Italian. For the next few months, writes the Institute of Via Cesare Balbo, “the contraction phase is expected to stop” with a recovery in consumption, but the unemployment rate is still rising. The collapse in oil prices also would have no positive effect for Italy.

“Overall, the composite indicator forerunner of the Italian economy would confirm a basically flat growth in the final quarter of the year,” explains always Istat.

Critical conditions labor market
The real sick continues to be the labor market: still recognizes the Istat, in a “difficult, with occupancy levels stagnant” and a growing number of people searching, fruitless , of a place. Are reminded of the “maximum” and “substantially higher” rate of unemployment (13.2% in October) than the European average. And even large companies see shrink the workforce. Other ugly signs come soaring of long-term unemployment, with more than half of the unemployed (62.3%) which is more than a year. Could be defined term unemployed, a disease especially widespread in the South.

From oil price fall no positive effect Nothing
benefits from the collapse in oil prices, at least for the ‘Italy. This is shown by a “simulation exercise” reported by ISTAT in the monthly note. In general, “the fall in oil prices would have a limited effect expansive”, points out the Institute of Statistics. In particular, the effect “for the euro area would be estimated at 0.1 and 0.3 tenths of a point, respectively, in 2015 and 2016. In 2015, the impact would be nil in Italy and Germany and equal to one tenth of a point in France and Spain. ” Indeed, this is always the Istat, the decline in energy prices might increase “disinflationary pressures with a negative impact on expectations. In this context, the most heavily indebted countries would see increase the real cost of debt.”