Istat: “Stop a recession in the coming months, but unemployment … – The Daily

Istat: "Stop a recession in the coming months, but unemployment … – The Daily

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In the months ahead the phase of contraction of the Italian economy will end thanks to a slight recovery in domestic demand. To predict is the ‘ Istat in a monthly note to the effect that the beginning of 2015 will be reversed compared to the last four years of uninterrupted Recession . The figure finally positive, continues the institute, but will go hand in hand with an additional increase in the unemployment rate than the 13.2% recorded in October. In spite of the first decrees of the Jobs Act , in short, “the conditions of the labor market remains difficult.” On the one hand some of the workers “discouraged” has started to look for a place, the other who is already on the market experiencing increasing difficulties in finding employment.

Italy, the researchers said Istat, can not hope in the thrust of cheap oil: a week ago the Minister of Economy Pier Carlo Padoan had said that if the barrel will remain around 60 dollars the GDP of the Peninsula will rise by 0.5 %, but the analyzes of the institute it clear that belie the price collapse will have “no impact” for Italy and Germany. Paradoxically the decline in prices could even have negative effects, because it will accentuate “pressures disinflationary , with a negative impact on expectations. In this context, the most heavily indebted countries would face increase in the real cost of the debt . “

Returning analyzing the performance of the current economy, the note Istat notes that in recent three months of this year, “the composite indicator forerunner of the Italian economy would confirm a substantial stationary of growth”, after the third quarter, economic activity has continued to remain weak, with the GDP still down ( -0.1% on a cyclical basis) following dell’accentuarsi of “contraction of the added value is in the factory in construction (respectively -0.6% and -1.1%) but in the presence of a stationary in the field of services . “

A level macroeconomic, then highlights the institute, the situation remains fragmented. Among the major economies, the USA are those who show the strongest signs of growth , and the € the scenario is characterized by slight signs for improvement. Thanks also to the low levels of oil prices , which limit production costs. Not that the eurozone can expect, as a result, a boom in growth: the positive effect will be limited to a + 0.1% next year and will reach 0.3% in 2016, provided the barrel setted lay it on thick. Rome and Berlin, however, no impact. To gain something will only France and Spain .

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