MILAN – Istat revised its estimates of the growth of Italy. More: see pink until 2017 thanks to a recovery in disposable income, a fall in unemployment and – wheel – a growth in domestic demand likely to sustain consumption and GDP. The Institute of Statistics has put pen to paper in the “Outlook for the Italian economy in 2015-2017″ which start with a revision of GDP for the current year: the real growth expected changes from 0.5% estimated in November to 0.7%. A trend that will be confirmed by the next two years: the economy will grow by 1.2% next year and 1.3% in 2017.
Question inside. Chiari also driver of growth: this year the progress of the GDP will be supported mainly by foreign demand (0.4 percentage points), while in the two years following two years will result in a strengthening cyclical contribution growing domestic demand (+0.8 and +1.1 percentage points) and the resulting increase in imports will favor a reduction in the contribution of net exports in 2017. Istat also expects an increase in household spending (+ 0.5%) following the improvement in disposable income and bet on gradual increase in employment which should strengthen private consumption (+ 0.7% next year, 0.9% the next).
Unemployment. As mentioned, the increase in employment (+ 0.6% in terms of work units) will be accompanied by a moderate decrease in the unemployment rate which, in 2015, will amount to 12.5%. In 2016, then, will decrease to 12% off for the next year to 11.4%. To return to below 10%, but – as expected by the government -, we will have to wait at least 2019. Positive signs also investments that will return to grow already this year (+ 1.2%) thanks to improved access conditions credit and expectations associated with a recovery in production dynamics.
Inflation. “Looking ahead, the easing of deflationary pressures exogenous, due primarily to the depreciation of the European currency, inflation will report on a positive path.” Average of the year, inflation will amount to a positive but close to zero (+ 0.2%). In the following two years, in the context of a sharp reversal of the sign of the contribution of exogenous component and the improvement of the macroeconomic internal resume the inflationary process. In the absence of the application of the safeguard clauses relating to excise duties and VAT rates, in 2016 the deflator of final consumption expenditure of households is expected to average 1.4%, while in 2017 will amount to a value just above.
International context. To support the recovery, according to Istat, will especially strengthen the growth of developed countries since the end of 2014, it was offset by the weakening of the economies emerging. In particular, for the United States it is assumed in a three-year return rate of economic growth close to 2.8% per annum. Signs of recovery from the euro with economic activity that began to grow again after two years of contraction and thanks – in early 2015 – a positive external factors (Quantitative Easing, drop in energy prices, exchange rate depreciation ) who fuel the improvement in the confidence of households and businesses.
Euro. In particular, it has arrested the fall in investment, which has characterized the European recession, and from next year the infrastructure should benefit from the recent economic policy measures launched by the European Commission (Piano Juncker). The action to stimulate the economy of the European Central Bank should also allow the depreciation of the euro against the dollar in the second half of 2015 reached parity, Istat is expected to stabilize in the next two years. As regards oil expects a gradual increase in prices between 2016 and 2017.
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