“waste must be systematically reducing but there are still margins appreciable further increase the efficiency of the services provided by public Administrations. The recent reform of the State budget will make it even more sustainable, effective and transparent expenditure planning”. This was stated by the minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, in the introduction to the update Note of the Def published in the evening on the website of the Ministry of Finance, which revised down from 0.5 to 0.1% of Gdp, the revenue of the privatisation to the end of 2016 (while maintaining the forecast of proceeds from privatization for the next three years).
The unemployment will amount to 11.5% in 2016 and then decline to 10.8% in 2017 and to 10.3% in 2018. Only in 2019 will drop below 10% (9,9%).
Def, 9-10 billion of new “flexibility”. Deficit of 2% target of Gdp +1%
Padoan: the debt begins to go down in 2017
The public debt this year will not drop. “As a result of the lower intensity of the recovery and the weak trend in prices, the debt/Gdp ratio will begin to decline from 2017,” he writes a Novel. In 2016, the debt will amount to the 132,8% to start to decrease by 2017 when it is expected to get to and 132.5%. The structural deficit will remain at 1.2% this year, to start to decline from 2018 to 0.7% and to get to 0.2%, essentially a tie, in 2019. “The dynamics of public investment is expected to grow also in 2016 and in the coming years, settling at around 2.3 percent on average over the period 2016-2019: in essence, in these years the debt is used to finance fixed investment, good practice to raise potential growth,” writes still Padoan.
The boost of investments
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Def: the target is Gdp +1% in 2017
the data contained in the update note of the Def approved in an exceedingly great evening yesterday by the Council of ministers this year, the Gdp will grow by only 0.8%, that is, four decimal points less than the 1.2% expected in the Document of April, while next year the “trend”, that is precisely the result that the economy would be without new interventions, is indicated by the government at 0.6%: touch precisely to the stimuli of the manoeuvre to do it go up to +1%, the new target set for 2017 in place of the 1.4% assumed in April. To allow this push within the new budget law, which should accordingly be worth between 22 and 25 billion (15 are needed for the stop to the safeguard clauses that would increase the Vat), is the additional space that the government aims to achieve in the course of the difficult in comparison with Europe, is intended to lead to the middle of November, in the judgment of the official.
Productivity the only compass that counts
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Def.: deficit of 2% of maneuver 0,5% Gdp in 2017
the update to The Def fixed at 2% the ratio between deficit and Gdp for the next year, against 2.4% which closes the end of 2016. Tables approved yesterday, however, add a further 0.4%, is attributable to the exceptional circumstances for the earthquake and migrants. The new target of net debt to programmatic by 2017 set at 2% compared to 1.8% previously estimated in the spring “requires a maneuver to 2017, equal to 0.5% of Gdp” by detailing in the budget law.
fiscal Pressure is a slight increase in
In 2016, the fiscal pressure of the current legislation cala of 0.8 percentage points compared to the year 2015, placing it at the 42.6 percent. The tax burden is falling to the 42.6% this year, but is set to rise to 42.8% in 2017 and to remain at 42.7% in both 2018 and 2019. Net of the bonus of 80 euro, the fiscal pressure, 42.1% this year, up one-tenth of a point in the 2017 to 42.2%. Confirmed value in 2018 and 2019.
Padoan: with the fight evasion down taxes, stop clauses
In 2017 there will be new measures to cut taxes with the stop to the safeguard clauses and “additional measures of relief for businesses that
will be supported by the “strategy to combat evasion, that emphasizes activities that stimulate the fulfilment of tax obligations and to encourage the emergence of” spontaneous”. As the minister of the Economy Pier Carlo Padoan in his introduction to the update note of the Def.
Upb: ok the framework 2016-17 risk estimates 2018-19
Meanwhile, the parliamentary Office of the budget has validated the positive macroeconomic trend 2016-17 inserted by the Mef in the update note of the Def, however, the Office points out in the estimates for the two-year period
the next “the presence of relevant risk factors and negative” both on growth and on inflation. “This leads to concern about the actual feasibility of the forecasts themselves”, adds the Upb.
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