Saturday, September 24, 2016

You can avoid the shower of official data on the Italian economy? – Corriere della Sera

Cronaca semiseria in the last month of communication on the part of Istat. Is wrong but to take it up with the Institute of statistics, following the international standards in the dissemination of the data. Something you can improve, if the Istat use with most decisions of its role of coordinator of the national statistical System, but the real challenge for users, who must learn to evaluate increasingly complex information, and who do not always have the same importance. Grows all over the world, the role of the data scientist and the demand for this professional figure, who would also serve in the media.

From the website of Istat derive and discuss:

31 August: monthly data on employmentand indicate that in July

the estimation of the busy cala 0.3% with respect to the month of June (-63 thousand), interrupting the positive trend recorded in the previous four months (+0,4% in march, +0.5% in April, 0.2% in may and June).

” Bad news, smiley face unhappy, if we want to express ourselves with Emoticons. :(

2 September: Istat confirms the change in the economic nothing of the gross domestic Product (Gdp) for the second quarter of 2016, disappointing the expectations of the government, which had expected a revision in the increase. :(we already talked about It on this blog.

September 3: the president of Istat Giorgio Alleva releases various interviews to the defense of the methodologies of the Institute and declare to the Courier for the object to reach the end of the year an increase of Gdp of 1% is "within the reach of our economy". :)

5 September:, the note monthly on the progress of the economy announces that l'the Italian economy has stopped the growth phase. :(

12 September: the note on a quarterly basis on the labour market confirm that in the second quarter of the year continued with its tendencies to the improvement. :)

September 13: the press release monthly industrial production (one of the most difficult to interpret) provides contrasting indications:

In July 2016, the index of the seasonally adjusted industrial production increased by 0.4% compared to June. :)

The recovery of production levels on a monthly basis is associated with a tendency to a quarterly negative: in the middle of the quarter may-July 2016, the production decreased 0.5% compared to the previous quarter. :(

adjusted for calendar effects, in July 2016, the index has decreased in terms of y / y 0.3% (working days were 21 versus the 23 of July 2015). :(

In the average of the first seven months of the year, production increased by 0.6% compared to the same period of the previous year. :)

September 23: Istat announces a revision of national accounts.

In 2015, the Gdp at market prices is equal to 1.642.444 million current euros, with an upward revision of 6.072 million compared to the previous estimate. For 2014, the level of Gdp is revised upwards to 8.497 million.

in Short, we have produced more wealth. :)

On the basis of the new data, Gdp in volume grew in 2014 by 0.1%, with an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points compared to a decrease of 0.3 percentage points estimated in march.

The recession was already over in 2014! :)

In 2015, the change in Gdp in volume is equal to 0.7%, with a downward revision of 0.1 percentage points compared with the preliminary estimate of march, it amounted to +0,8%.

The change in Gdp in volume, increased in 2014 compared to 2015, the improvement of the Italian economy in 2015 was even less fast :(

we do Not yet know ( and we won’t know until 3 October, when will be released the new data with the quarterly dynamic) if this revision will take effect on the accounts of the current year.

We have omitted in this review the communications from the other public sources (primarily the ministry of Labour and Inps) that contribute to the scottish shower knocking the media and the public.

You can do something to change this situation?

Someone would like to reduce the communication of official statistics: less data, wait for elements that are more certain for the release, reducing the revisions. This is contrary to all international standards, starting from the Dissemination standard of the money Fund, pushing instead toward data timely and relevant as well as accessible to all. Moreover, the revision of the Gdp of 2014 is coming to a year and a half away: you could not wait all this time to release the data

another solution could be to compose the data analysis more comprehensive and reasoned. The Istat has begun to do so with the notes monthly on the economy, and the quarterly on-the-job. In this field, however, it would take more courage. it Rears had announced an agreement to co-ordinate the communication of the data on-the-job with the Ministry, Inps and Inail. Reasons that would be interesting to investigate (the jealousies between bureaucracies?) have actually prevented the follow-up to the agreement, and so the mayor comes out with its quarterly bulletin, without comment on the other official data. Maybe he should start doing so, strong also of its role as a coordinator of the national statistical System.

In any case, scottish shower, data will continue, by posing a difficult challenge to those who analyze them. the commentators should take into account more variables, as for example the margin of statistical error in sample surveys (Istat began to communicate, at least in part) and the rain of data from unofficial sources that you infittirà with the growth of the Big Data. The politicians will continue to use only those that are comfortable for them, with ever-increasing shamelessness, in this "era of postverità", also because, at least in Italy, there is almost no one who contests them with a fact-checking.

The journalists are not expected to begin to weigh the data. Give little importance to those who do not count (for example, we continued to report in an almost obsessive way the low significance of what is called the "youth unemployment") and better explain the apparent contradictions in statistical surveys. Ignore variations of 0.1 % (as suggested by Daniel Lack < / em>Courier of today) and learn how to analyze the confidence interval in the sample surveys and the limitations of the surveys.

it is Not an easy task: in case, grows in the world, the question of "data scientist", the experts can do this type of analysis. We would also like in the newspapers, with an effective monitoring role on the figures about to be published, and on the readability of the graphs, which should not only be beautiful patches of color, as is often the case. Ma in Italy, this role does not exist in any organ of information, because, with the advent of the' on-line, with its continuous flow of news, the checks from the central offices of the editors (and journalists themselves) on what the public have decreased instead of increase.

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