the ROME. The deficit-to-Gdp ratio will come in at 2.3 percent, the growth will be fixed at 1 percent, the debt will settle at 131 percent of Gdp. The terno of numbers developed laboriously in the last few hours is ready: the numbers are in a table on the table of Matteo Renzi. Are the busy moments of a weekend of work, who see the Economy minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, in close telephone contact with the technical staff and with the Commissioners in Brussels, to put a point, in view of the launch tomorrow by the Council of ministers, the update note of the Def, the economic and financial Document, crucial to the definition of the next budget law. Therefore, for the pockets of italians.
The third session of the financial statements of the U opens into a tense and overheated climate of strong disagreement with the european partners, Germany and France, and in a framework in which the international economy is slowing down with inevitable repercussions on the country where the recovery is slow to take off. “Few resources”, warned Padoan, who wants to concentrate them all on investments and employment.
the challenge of The Gdp. the table to The point growth mark for the next year by 1 percent. Padoan on Friday evening, had expressed confidence on this number, and this is the amount agreed upon, even if the Chigi Palace does not exclude to be able, in the next few hours, to convince the Treasury to get to 1.1 percent. The situation, as it is known, is not the best for 2017, the Oecd marks 0.8 percent and the confederation of even 0.5 percent. The second quarter of the year has given growth to be flat even if the revision of Gdp in 2014 and 2015, just arrived, has not deteriorated a lot of things, leaving margins to predictions inspired by the “confidence” relying on the effects of the maneuver.
The battle of the flexibility. Is the most popular, high in the game on the table that sees opposing Rome and Brussels. Palazzo Chigi has encrypted a ratio of deficit-to-Gdp ratio is 2.3 per cent: in these hours, Renzi would have already been in your pocket the 2.2 percent even if does not exclude from the reach 2.4 percent. Given that the Final of April, “endorsed” in may, in Brussels, allows us to get to 1.8 percent, it seems to be a higher margin that you can assess at 0.5 percent of Gdp, about 8 billion.
flexibility has been introduced by the Commission Juncker in 2015, to loosen the rigor in Europe: it can be used in the event of negative economic conditions, reforms, and investments, but also to cope with difficult circumstances such as emergency migrants, and terrorism. Italy had already in the two-year period 2015-2016: as he recalled in recent days, mr Juncker, we have received 19 billion. Thus stop, as he recognized the minister Padoan in Bratislava. The road, which would allow them to break through and reach 2.3 percent, is another: it’s called “exceptional circumstances” and refers to the recent earthquake in Central Italy, with the impact on the redevelopment and seismic safety of the schools. The four billion that you talk about would be in this game where you would add a post on the emergency immigration: of course the check will be made final in march 2017.
The pressing of Renzi. The great tension of the last two weeks has been the sign of the battle of Italy: from the 16th of September in Bratislava yesterday to the Lawn, the premier has not spared his criticism of Europe, the austerity policy (“Does more harm than good”), Germany (“does Not comply with the rules on the trade surplus”), the Fiscal compact (“did Not work”). Yesterday, after the slap of Berlin (Renzi was not invited to the summit Merkel-Hollande-Juncker), the premier from the Lawn is returned to the charge: “I’m Not intimidated,” he said. At the end, also in consideration of the climate committee of populism mast, and the bet of the constitutional referendum, the “no” seems to be indented, and the ratio of deficit-to-Gdp ratio will rise.
Pensions and businesses. The update to the Def should contain only an indication of the maximum of the interventions “give”, and cuts. Of course, with a budget deficit of 2.3 per cent, the margins are much wider: the difficult task of finding the 15.1 billion to defuse the Vat increase of two points can be addressed almost the whole of the deficit, will remain to finance the new operations, perhaps to 5-6 billion. In the first line we are on pensions, poverty and families, the contract of the state, the superammortamento for companies that invest in addition to salary and productivity. No reduction of the personal income Tax or tax wedge, postponed to 2018. While resources will be from the spending review (3 billion), perhaps from the health and by the Regions. New revenues are expected from the operation of the capital return and by an intervention on some of the deductions.
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