The Gdp declines, the uk’s confirmation To the U there were 10 billion – Newspaper

the New shadows lengthen on the law of the Budget. Yesterday the mayor announced the revision of Gdp in 2014 and 2015. Both were a little bit higher earlier estimates (+8.5 billion two years ago, +6 billion year-on-year), but the effect that is generated is not entirely comforting. If in 2014, in fact, there has not been recession, but growth (+0,1% -0,3% previously) in 2015, the increase has slowed down (from +0.8 to +0.7). The deficit/Gdp ratio in 2015 remained unchanged at 2.6 per cent. What matters most, though, is that the dragging effect of the last year on the current one, it is inevitably reduced. Italy remains therefore trapped in a path of low growth.

The minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, yesterday evening the Tg1 has dispensed optimism saying covertly that the revision of the estimates for the gross domestic product in 2016 is closer to 1%, but unfortunately the numbers say the opposite, since you grow less than hoped for and that, above all, industrial production is planted (see article below). The real drama Padoan has tried in some way to hide it. “There is no comparison with Brussels on flexibility for next year: Italy has used the forms of flexibility provided for by the european rules and if it is well-deserved because he did the reforms and investment,” he added, announcing that you will go on to use it in the best way possible with the few resources available”.

Or to put it in a very brisk, as did the leader of Forza Italia in the Chamber Renato Brunetta, “we need a maneuver by 30-40 billion because Europe will not allow you to do more deficit spending to satisfy the lust for power of the U, or bears more of the public debt is too high or spending cuts fake”. A clear reference to the nein of the president of the Eu Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, at the request of raising the bar of the deficit in 2017.

Just put together a few numbers: the sterilisation of the safeguard clause on Vat (€15 billion) and the measures on pensions, public contracts and “Industry 4.0″ (over 10 billion) should take account of the law of the Budget to tap the 26-27 billion euro. In the face of these outputs, the premier Renzi and the minister Padoan expect to recover more than eur 6 billion from the spending review (half by cuts and half by the centralization of purchases through Consip) more than 4 billion from voluntary cooperation on the reporting of assets held abroad. As hypothesized in August of this year, it intends to encrypt also the lowest cost of the interest on the debt (roughly 5 billion).

Missing roughly a dozen billion that Renzi would like to recover in the form of deficit (0.6% of Gdp) with a new appeal to those terms of the flexibility that the Eu has already rejected beforehand. On A closer look, you can’t give been prejudicially wrong in austere euroburocrati: the revision Istat has in fact returned a ratio of debt to Gdp is lower but growing faster. By the dynamic and 132.5-132,7% to the two-year period 2014-2015 it is passed to 131,8-132,2 percent. This means that it is in fact even more deficits. Ask, therefore, to raise it again to 1.8% promised for next year to 2.4-2.5 per cent, as he would like Renzi, is not just a serious attitude.