on the rise again, at least on an annual basis, inflation in September. According to the preliminary estimates of Istat, the national index of consumer prices for the entire community, inclusive of tobacco, recorded a decrease of 0.2% on a monthly basis and an increase of 0.1% compared to September 2015 (was-0.1% in August).
this Is the first positive development, “though little”, after the seven decreases in trends, reports and Istat. This reversal of the trend, says the institute of statistics, is mainly due to the sharp downsizing of the decline in prices of energy goods is not regulated (-2,7% -7,0% in August), both regulated (-4,1% -5,9%) and, to a lesser extent, to the resumption of the growth trend of prices of services related to transport (+1,1%; the change was nothing the previous month).
net of food products and of energy goods, the core inflation rises to +0.5% (from +0,4% in August); net of just energy goods amounted to +0.5% recording, compared to the previous month (+0,6%), a slow minor. Inflation gained for 2016 is thus equal to -0,1% (was nothing the previous month).
Compared to September 2015, prices of goods have registered a decline equal to-0.2% (-0,5% in August), while the growth rate of prices of services drops to +0.4% (from +0.5% in the previous month). Accordingly, compared to August 2016, the differential of inflation between goods and services is reduced by four-tenths of a percentage point.
The decrease on monthly basis of the general index of consumer prices is mainly attributable to declines in the short term, in large part due to seasonal factors, of prices of transport services (by 3.0%) and services recreational, cultural and for the care of the person (by 0.9%). The prices of food goods, for the care of the house and of the person decrease of 0.1% on a monthly basis and recorded a zero change on an annual basis (+0,6% in August).
the prices of The products, high purchase frequency increase of 0.1% in terms of economic and 0.2% y / y (was +0,1% in August). According to preliminary estimates, the index harmonized consumer price increases of 1.9% on a monthly basis and by 0.1% on an annual basis, with a reversal of trend from down by 0.1% in August.
But it is too early to claim victory. “The exit from deflation is still extremely shy and price growth of 0.1% is not enough to declare victory,” said Codacons. “The limited growth of prices increased just 0.1% on an annual basis may not reassure the Country,” says the president Carlo Rienzi.
“this step, in fact, and without relapse of the lists, it will take about 15 years to return to levels of inflation that are acceptable and useful to the economy. Deflation first, and the recovery slow and prices now, are caused by low consumption of the families: for this reason, we ask now for months, measures to support domestic demand, because only if the purchases are resumed, the prices can finally continue, with benefits for the economy as a whole,” concludes Rienzi.
Rosario Trefiletti and Elio Lannutti slow down any enthusiasm: “the growth, shy and contained, it will stop at +0,1%. Was still extremely feeble and uncertain, but that is a small step forward”, keep the presidents of Federconsumatori and Adusbef, according to which is the government, now, to take advantage of this positive signal to initiate the measures necessary for growth. “It is time to trigger a new phase of development, which points on research, innovation, modernisation and the creation of infrastructure, the enhancement of the tourist offer”, specify.
this Is “operations priority” that rimetterebbero in motion the labour market and domestic demand (from 2012 to 2015 has seen a decline a fall of 10.2%, equal to approximately 72,2 billion euros. “But, to help the recovery of domestic demand, it is necessary to also support to lower incomes and a greater control on the rates: how is it possible that, for example, just to mention one of the most extraordinary cases, in the period 2013-2016, the increase of the Tari was 20 times more than inflation?”, conclude Trefiletti and Competitors.
Inflation in the recovery in the Eurozone, but core below expectations
inflation in the euro area in September, according to the preliminary reading, grew by 0.4% at the annual level, compared to +0.2% in August, in line with the expectations of the consensus. Instead, core inflation preliminary, up 0.8% year-on-year, has disappointed slightly the expectations of+0.9% year-on-year). “The data core has disappointed the expectations, and for this reason the euro has slightly weakened, even if not so significant,” says Filippo Diodovich, strategist at Ig, requested by the agency MF-dow jones.
The expert believes that inflation should continue to recover in the coming months, as anticipated by the president of the Ecb, Mario Draghi. However, “the crisis in the financial sector could weigh on confidence.” Therefore, “if the crisis were to persist, or even worsen, the outlook on inflation may change,” warns Diodovich. At the moment the euro-dollar exchange traveling to 1,1171. Weigh on the single currency the concerns related to the state of health of the Deutsche Bank (-3,86% 10,45 euros on the Frankfurt stock exchange).
However, the numbers today on prices, along with the positive ones yesterday from Germany and Spain, confirm an improvement of the framework of the global inflation in the euro area: an element that is interpreted as a first confirmation of the effectiveness of the action of the Ecb, and which in perspective could loosen the pressure on Frankfurt to adopt new initiatives of the stimulus.
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