11:32 05/17/2016
Rome – In 2016, the GDP will grow by 1.1%, therefore greater extent compared to 2015 (+ 0.8%). Certifies the ‘ Istat in “prospects for the Italian economy in 2016″ . In particular, the report said, the preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter 2016 (+ 0.3%) “has confirmed, albeit with moderate intensity, the continuation of the expansion phase of the Italian economy started at the beginning of the previous year. Some of the support growth factors such as the low level of energy prices , reduction of interest rates and the gradual improvement of the trusted between operators are expected to produce their effects in the current year. ” Consumption is also expected to grow: household spending, says Istat, is estimated at 1.4% fueled by the increase in disposable income and the improvement of labor market conditions.
in particular as regards GDP, Istat said that the short-term outlook suggests a continuation of the recovery in production rates, with an expected strengthening in the second half; average annual increase in GDP is expected to accelerate compared to the 2015 trend (+ 1.1%). Domestic demand excluding changes in inventories should contribute positively to 1.3 percentage points, supported by growth in private consumption. Foreign demand would provide a negative contribution to a tenth of a percent, an increase over the previous year dynamics. Even for stocks is expected to remain negative contribution to GDP growth amounted to one-tenth of a percent. Positive news also on the investment front, whose recovery has concluded a long and deep contraction phase began in 2008. At the recent progress has been key component of transportation while both the machinery and equipment both buildings have shown early signs recovery. In a context of highly accommodative monetary policy and an improvement in the conditions of access to credit for enterprises, the gradual strengthening of the economic recovery and the measures of fiscal policy at European and national level will be the main stimulus elements to the process of capital accumulation. In the course of 2016, it is expected to progressive acceleration in investment growth (+2.7%) and mainly driven by part of the machines and equipment which will be accompanied by the gradual recovery of the construction cycle. instead slows foreign trade . In 2015, the volume of foreign sales of goods and services recorded an increase, supported by the marked depreciation of the euro against the dollar. In the current year this trend is expected to attenuation at the slowdown in world trade. In 2016, exports of goods and services will increase by 1.7%, but remained below the growth of potential demand for Italian products. Total imports will continue to record a more dynamic (+ 2.4%), albeit to a marked slowdown compared to the increase recorded last year. The gradual recovery of domestic demand, particularly investment will support an acceleration of imports during the second half of the year. In 2016, the positive trend in terms of trade, helped by a reduction in prices of imports, in particular of energy, greater than exports, will support the consolidation of the trade balance surplus, forecast at 3.6% of GDP.
in 2016, jobs , expressed in terms of units of work, it is expected to rise (+ 0.8% compared to 2015) supported by the growth of economic activity. The increase in employment is expected to benefit in part of tax relief for new hires, whose intensity was significantly reduced in the current year. According to Istat, the Unemployment rate is expected to fall in the coming months, reaching 11.3% on average for the year, due to the decrease of people looking for work and in the absence of significant changes in so far observed behaviors among the inactive neighbors to the labor market. Wages per employee would register a modest growth, in line with that of negotiated wages (+ 0.8% in 2016). The labor productivity is expected to return to positive growth rates, while the cost of labor per unit of output is estimated slightly down. And as for the price , this fall there will be a turnaround. Will not talk more about deflation, but the ‘ Inflation will return albeit slightly to grow . The Mayor explained that currently “the dynamics of prices should not deviate from the present up to the summer months, autumn would materialize a turnaround, which would set the trend rate of more sustained values towards the end of the year, although still less than 1% “. “The major contribution to curbing inflation is still expected dependent on external component costs, with the prices of energy products which would record a negative change in annual average also in 2016. The modest growth in wages and production costs in a whole would provide an inflationary contribution limited to the prices of the main underlying components “the researchers said, adding that” on average in 2016, the growth rate of the deflator of household expenditure is estimated at just above zero for the third consecutive year (+0 , 2%). the GDP deflator, reflecting the predominantly external origin of the downward pressure on prices, should mark a faster annual growth (+ 0.8%). ” The current forecast scenario, precise at the same time the Mayor, “incorporates an assumption of slight appreciation of the euro and a stabilization of oil prices in the second half of this year. It is also assumed that the trend of trade World is more lively than the previous year. a less favorable evolution of the US economy and a more marked slowdown of the Chinese may incur downward revisions of foreign contribution to growth. ” (AGI)
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