The measures that the manoeuvres will halt the increase of Vat provided for by the safeguard clauses and will aim to raise public and private investment will have the task of increasing the Gdp of 0.4% compared to the dynamics that you would draw to the unchanged legislation. The wager is indicated in the update to the Def approved in an exceedingly great evening yesterday by the Council of ministers: this year, the national wealth will grow by only 0.8%, that is, four decimal points less than the 1.2% expected in the Document of April, while next year the “trend”, that is precisely the result that the economy would be without new interventions, is indicated by the government at 0.6%: touch precisely to the stimuli of the manoeuvre to do it go up to +1%, the new target set for 2017 in place of the 1.4% assumed in April.
Productivity the only compass that counts
To motivate the difference in the programs of the government, there is a stop to the safeguard clauses that would increase the Vat, and the tax package is based on the relaunch of the superammortamento and other interventions provided for the”Industry 4.0″ and for small and medium-sized enterprises. To allow this push within the new budget law, which should accordingly be worth between 22 and 25 billion, is the additional space that the government aims to achieve in the course of the difficult in comparison with Europe, is intended to lead to the middle of November, in the judgment of the official.
framework updated
the update to The Def fixed at 2% the ratio between deficit and Gdp for the next year, against 2.4% which closes the end of 2016; the new target is therefore placed two decimal points above the 1.8% that was indicated in the spring. Tables approved yesterday, however, add a further 0.4%, is attributable to the exceptional circumstances for the earthquake and migrants: up to yesterday afternoon, the assumptions of the dominant spoke of 0.3% add-in, but at the end of the council of ministers the premier Renzi has been hailed as the decimal, which brings the deficits of the "substance" of 2017 at 2.4%. Translated into euro, this move would put at the disposal of the government 9-10 billion additional. To reach the goal, however, must overcome two steps is not discounted: the government must first of all get in the Parliament, by an absolute majority as imposed by the reform of the budget law, the authorization to ask for Europe to be able to use these additional spaces, and the Eu, in its turn, must turn on the green disc by looking at the structural deficit and the path to achieve the balanced budget that the minister Padoan remains at the time confirmed in the current calendar.
The boost of investments
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The slowdown of the national product also reflects on the weight of the debt, by missing the target to cut already this year, its incidence on the Gdp. The update note is to certify that the liabilities of the Public administration remains at an altitude 132,8%, while the Final of April, consisted of a slight descent, to 132.4. The challenge is then postponed to the next year, when the ratio between debt and Gdp is called to go down to 132,2%), also thanks to a new tranche of privatisation, another strand that in 2016, has marched at a slower pace than expected. To complete the picture of the numbers of public finances is missing today, given the pressure of taxation, which, for the moment, the government has not provided.
Brussels, brakes: negotiations on the flexibility to still be open
In this framework, the new margins of “extra deficit” at the centre of negotiations with Brussels should enable the Government to build a maneuver from 22-25 billion. The blanket remains short, and the confirmation comes from the orientation of the limit to 1.5 billion dowry for the package the pensions that will be discussed today with the trade unions, in these days already "cold", opposite to the initial hypothesis, which talked of a budget of around two billion. Only the sterilization of the safeguard clauses related to the increase of Vat, of the rest, "mortgage" over 15 billion euro, thus about 60 per cent of the maneuver overall. The rest, as reaffirmed on more than one occasion by the minister of the Economy Pier Carlo Padoan, will concentrate on the boost to investment: in this framework so tight, however, still remains to understand what will be the dowry effective on the side of public investment, starting from the local ones.
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