Istat corrects the accounts: growth in 2015 was 0.7%, but the recession is over before – The Republic

MILAN - The Italian Gdp in 2015 has increased by 0.7% and 0.8%, as thought previously. He told the Istat, which revised down its preliminary estimate of last march. But to decrypt the data completely you have to take into account the fact that the review is extended also to the previous year: in 2014, in fact, the trend of the Gdp volume has changed sign, moving from a decline of 0.3% previously indicated an expansion of 0.1%. It is, therefore, an upward revision of 0.4 points: “This upward revision of the Gdp in 2014 is important” because it “anticipates” to what he considered “the turning point” that saw Italy out of the recession, stressed the president of Istat, Giorgio Alleva, commenting on the data, on the sidelines of a conference in the Chamber.

Thinking in absolute terms and looking at the Gdp at market prices, the statistical Institute has revised so the data for the last two years, in both cases for the better: “In 2015, the Gdp at market prices is equal to 1.642.444 million current euros, with an upward revision of 6.072 million compared to the previous estimate. For 2014, the level of Gdp is revised upwards to 8.497 million euros”.

REVIEW OF the PERCENTAGE CHANGES
the MAIN AGGREGATES OF the INCOME STATEMENT
OF RESOURCES AND USES.
Years 2014-2015, chain-linked indices (reference year 2010),
estimates September 2016 compared to the estimates on march 2016

Aggregates	2014			2015
		Estimates September 2016 a	Estimates march 2016 b	Revisions -b	Estimates September 2016 a	Estimates march 2016 b	Revisions -b
gross domestic Product at market prices	0,1	-0,3	0,4	0,7	0,8	-0,1
Imports of goods and services fob	3,3	3,2	0,1	6,0	6,0	0,0
final national Consumption	0,1	0,2	-0,1	1,0	0,5	0,5
– Expenditure of families	0,4	0,6	-0,2	1,5	0,9	0,6
– Expenditure of AP	-0,9	-1,0	0,1	-0,6	-0,7	0,1
– Expenditure of Isp	3,2	1,5	1,7	2,8	0,6	2,2
gfcf	by 3.0	-3,4	0,4	1,3	0,8	0,5
Exports of goods and services fob	2,9	3,1	-0,2	4,3	4,3	0,0

source: Istat

estimates on the past year, in terms of volume, have led to adjustments upward for all the main aggregates of the expenditure: by 0.5 percentage points, gross fixed investment, by 0.6 points, the expenditure of households, by 2.2 points for the expenditure of the Isp and of 0.1 points the expense of the Pa. The growth rates of exports and imports have not undergone revisions. In the opposite direction has made the revision in the level of stocks, bullish for the year 2014 and to be down for the one after that “has induced a significant change in the contribution of this aggregate to the variation of the Gdp; in terms of volume, the contribution is positive for 0.6 percentage points in 2014 (it was previously null) and 0.1 points in 2015 (compared with +0.5 points in the estimate of last march)”.

Remaining to 2015, according to Istat, has remained unchanged, the ratio between deficit and gross domestic Product, the parameter that is kept an eye on in particular by the european Commission last year amounted to 2.6%, an improvement from 3% in 2014. Even an improvement, however, the other parameter that is monitored closely by the sheriffs of european public debt: amounted in 2015 to 132,2% of Gdp, up from eur 131.8% in 2014. The latest estimates of the 21 April last, showed a relationship to the 132,7%.

Among the other interesting data plotted by the Istat, you may recall that last year the gross disposable income of consumer households marked a growth of 0.9% both in nominal value, both in terms of purchasing power, i.e. disposable income in real terms. At the same time, final consumption expenditure grew by 1.5%, resulting in a decline of 0.6 percentage points in the propensity to save.

Topics:

istat

– growth

Gdp

the public debt

deficit

Starring: