From 0.3 to 0,4 points of Gdp. So should be worth in 2017 the thrust of the reforms carried out, starting from that of the public administration, and of the measures to be included in the next budget law to give more strength to the investment. At least on the basis of the new macroeconomic scenario outlined by the update Note of the Def (NaDef), which will be approved tomorrow by the Council of ministers, even if it is not excluded that the launch could slip to Tuesday. The update is on the downside of the trend Gdp for the next year is expected to be between 0.7% and 0.8%, while the new estimate on the slope of the programmatic should indicate a +is 1.1-1.2 percent. For 2016, the growth ought to be revised to 0.8-1% (most probably by 0.9%). Even if the impact in negative on the deficit should be reduced by the revision made by Istat for the year 2014 (from -0,3% to +0,1%). That resulted in the early exit from the recession.
The narrow road is a mix of many forms of flexibility
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In particular, the deficit in 2017 should rise from 1.8% agreed with Brussels last spring to share a 2-2 draw,1%, freeing up additional resources to use very limited compared with 7-8 billion already granted in may. But the Government should have the ability to separate from the constraints of the stability Pact in the european 7-8 billion euro (at least 0.4 percentage points of Gdp) related to post-earthquake (from the reconstruction of the areas affected by the earthquake of August to the start of the project, Casa Italia for the prevention) and to the new effects of the issue-migrants (see The Sun 24 Hours yesterday). With the result of increasing the deficit substantially at 2,4-2,5%. The magnitude of the costs to be free from the constraints of the Eu might undergo a few tweaks, also because on this point would be the ongoing informal contacts (and not) with Brussels. Among the issues to resolve there would be the inclusion of the programme of Casa Italia in between entries to separate from the Covenant and the real impact the accounting of the question of migrants: this year, the clause had guaranteed to the last Stability law, an additional space equal to 0.2% of Gdp (about 3.3 billion).
the numbers in The update note of the Def
Also debt to Pa and debt, in addition to the adjustment of the structural deficit, there are two observed special from Brussels. On the first slope there would be different schools of thought within the same majority (and the Government) where they forbid anyone who is in favour of a rise in the dry of the bar of the deficit for the next year beyond the 2.5-to 2.6% (arriving maybe even 2.9%) to widen the spaces for measures for the growth.
Palazzo Chigi and the ministry of the Economy, have repeatedly said it wanted to stay within the Eu rules. The minister Pier Carlo Padoan, in particular, on Friday reiterated that the Government continues to consolidate public finances, reducing the deficit and by lowering the debt” and also has repeated that additional flexibility “there is”. This year, the new estimate of the deficit should settle at an altitude of 2.4-2.5 per cent with a slight stretch of the target set in the Final of last spring (or 2.3%). The confirmation of the reduction process would result in a lowering of the slider in 2017. In the past few days, there was talk of a revised estimate to the 2,3-2,4%, but in the last few hours, seems to prevail the hypothesis of not deviating too much from the goal of 1.8 percent agreed with Brussels before the summer to avoid relapses too marked on the path of debt reduction. For this reason, the Government seems to indicate a forecast of a deficit to 2-2,1% for the next year. As for the debt, remains the hub of the most critical of Brussels seen that the prospect for the 2017 remains complicated.
Manoeuvre, 15 measures for a menu from 23-26 billion
The update Note of the Def, which should be composed of about eighty folders, going to get the content of the reform of the Budget approved in the summer by the Parliament. In addition to the new macro-economic framework, there will be directions on the law of the budget which will be launched in mid-October, starting from the confirmation of the sterilisation of the safeguard clauses in tax by over $ 15 billion for 2017 and the new phase of the spending review. The Cgil has, meanwhile, said that with the new levels of assistance (Lea) will be introduced for new healthcare fees charged to citizens for a total of 60 million.
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