Wednesday, September 21, 2016

The Oecd cut estimates for global growth 2016/2017, bad Italy – Italy Today

The Oecd has cut its estimates of global growth for 2016 and 2017, warning that failure to counter the “negative reactions” to the globalization could condemn the global economy to a “trap of low growth”.
And the law in the Interim Economic Outlook of the Organizer, in which were reviewed the estimates made in June. The Italian Gdp is expected in expansion of 0.8% in both 2016 and in 2017, against the estimates of three months ago that pointed to a rise of 1% in 2016 and 1.4% in 2017.

About the United Kingdom the growth estimate for 2017 has been reduced by half from 1% to 2% because of the Brexit. “The uncertainty about the road’s future policies and the reaction of the economy remains very high and the risks remain to the downside”. The Us growth was revised downward to 1.4% in 2016, up from the previous 1.8 percent. Germany has undergone a revision from 1.8% to 1.6% in 2016, while in 2017 the estimated cala from 1.7% to 1.5%.
Catherine Mann, chief economist of the Oecd, reported in the Wall Street Journal that “you are demonstrating the large negative consequences of failures in countering the criticism of globalisation”. The Oecd suggests that the measures protectionist policies adopted by many Countries should be reversed and that must be reduced the tariff barriers and non-tariff to trade, thanks in part to a harmonisation of regulation. Mann said that the voters must understand that a step back from the globalization has a cost in terms of prices of goods and services higher and growth slower, even if there are disappointments for some of its consequences. “If you go in the direction of close the borders, things become worse. Is not this the way in which someone who has lost their job can find it”.
The Oecd reiterates that Governments must increase expenditure for investment and to stimulate economic growth. A fortiori, when the low cost of interest allow you to borrow without damaging the “sustainability tax”. A collective effort and coordinated it would then have beneficial effects even more. “You are taking note of the fact that monetary policy is at a limit and that its capacity is decreasing,” said Mann. The easy monetary policy are starting to distort asset prices, and this is a risk to the stability of the financial, warns the Oecd, that suggests the Fed to continue toward a “gradual” rise in interest rates, while Japan and the Eurozone, and it is still appropriate for the line “accommodating”.

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