Istat: “The growth has been interrupted and the weakness will continue” – The Republic

MILAN – The Italian growth has officially broken with the second time of year: April to June 2016, the dynamics of the Peninsula income was flat in comparison with the first quarter of 2016. Despite the improvement of the GDP in comparison with last year, the result is a “zero growth.” Today the Institute of Statistics back to comment on the performance of the economy tricolor in his monthly note and remember that the Italian economy “has stopped the growth phase, conditioned on the demand side by the negative contribution of domestic component and the side of ‘offered by the fall of the industrial production sector. ” What worries most, though, is the prospect: “The leading indicator of the economy remains negative in July, suggesting the coming months a continuation of the phase of weakness of the Italian economy.”

In the analysis of economists’ Istat, it takes stock of the Eurozone framework, currently done more than shadows of lights: “Leading indicators of the business cycle showed signs of a slowdown of the area’s growth prospects. L ‘ economic sentiment indicator has decreased slightly in August, as a result of the deterioration in confidence in both industry and services; consumer confidence was affected by the worsening of judgments about future working conditions. the Eurocoin index remained broadly unchanged compared with July. the persistent condition of uncertainty, sustained in the short term effect Brexit, it was reflected in a prolonged devaluation of the pound against the dollar and euro and an increase in the prices of precious metals considered safe havens “.

Coming to Italy, however, he points the finger on the weakness in domestic demand and in particular dell’indusria in the strict sense, which reported” a significant reduction of the value added (-0.8 % compared to the first quarter). ” On the other hand, the horizon is ruffled: “The expectations for the coming months remain weak. The confidence of manufacturing firms is in fact worsened in August highlighting not particularly lively signals between the components.” The institute also Markit surveys (the latest concern the August figure) reported a decline in prospects for the manufacturing industry. Unlike the trend in the service sector: Today the Mayor returns to remember that “recorded a positive quarterly change (+ 0.2), confirming an upward trend that has persisted for five quarters, albeit with different trends at the sectoral level. The financial and insurance activities have marked the most marked decrease (-0.6%), although less severe than in previous quarters. Pushups minor characterized the information and communication services and the PA, defense, education and health ( -0.2% for both segments). significant increases concern the professional and support activities (+ 0.5%), trade, transport and accommodation (+ 0.4%) and real estate activities (+ 0.4%) “. And also this case, the Markit PMI for the services provides better insights than it does the manufacturing.

Words ungainly ears of Mario Draghi, governor of the ECB engaged in fighting deflation, are those that Istat is dedicating to prices: the scenario for the coming months “not expected to lead to significant recoveries of the dynamics of prices.”

in the light of this situation, summing up of what he expects the Italian economy Istat said that “the composite index of the climate of business confidence fell below the 100 mark for the first time since February 2015. the diffusion indices of the economic growth of the manufacturing and services sectors still report a higher percentage to 50 % of growth sectors, although the share decreased compared to the previous quarters. the leading indicator of the economy remains negative in July, suggesting the coming months a continuation of the phase of weakness of the Italian economy. “

Topics:

istat

GDP

growth

public accounts

economic recovery

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