In the second quarter of 2016 the Italian GDP, adjusted for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted, remained unchanged from the previous quarter. On an annual trend basis, however, GDP increased by 0.8%, instead of 0.7% as previously estimated. The latest data released by ISTAT today therefore confirm the economic estimates released on August 12 last year, after the Ministry of Economy had leaked two days ago waiting for a cyclical upward revision based on the latest turnover data services . Istat explain, however, that other components, especially credit and insurance, have moved in the opposite direction. Laconically met Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, “The GDP is growing. This is my comment, “he stressed coming to the Forum.
The turnover of the role of services
At the base of the change of the GDP levels there ‘ entry of new statistics that showed an improvement in sales of services. Also influences the data come from the market, and the consumption of non-market services activities ie non-market. In the first quarter, in essence, levels of GDP have been revised upwards by 160 million euro, while in the second quarter increased by approximately 200 million euro. Reviewing both quarters, in terms of GDP levels, the cyclical variation does not change and, therefore, Istat confirmed the zero growth compared with the first quarter of 2016. Increases, however, the trend change that goes so +0 , 8 percent. Revised upward, of course, the change acquired in 2016 rising to 0.7% from 0.6 percent.
Change% on the corresponding quarter . chained series with reference year 2010, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted (Source: Istat)
Well agriculture, down industry
In terms of value added, the cyclical increases reported by Istat are in agriculture (0.5%) and services (0.2%) and decrease (-0.6% ) in the industry. Within the services sectors are detected in flexion and expanding sectors: significant increases relate to the professional activities and support services (0.5%) and those in the sector of trade, transportation and housing (0.4%); on the contrary, concludes the Istat, the sharpest decline affects the financial and insurance activities (-0.6%).
% change over the previous quarter. chained series with reference year 2010, corrected for calendar effects and seasonally adjusted (Source: Istat)
Question, yet steady domestic consumption
on the side of domestic demand, after recording increases for four consecutive quarters, consumption return to the cyclical zero, the synthesis of a 0.1% increase in household consumption and a drop of 0.3 % of the expense of Pa, while fixed investment data back even negative after five quarters: -0.3% after + 0.8% in the previous quarter (1% in the fourth 2015); slowdown also on a trend basis with + 2.1% from + 2.3%. Ferme construction (-0.4%). Instead resumes exports, an increase of 1.9% cyclical after -1.2% in the first three months and + 0.8% trend (from + 0.1%), however, increasingly distant from changes in previous quarters all well over 2 percent.
Istat: latch GDP in the second quarter
Donate (Unc), “forecast 2016 Def a mirage”
Istat thus gives a blow, at 24 hours, the optimism of Prime Minister, yesterday ready to bet on growth in place, below forecasts of Def (1.2% of trend growth in 2016) but still no steps back into the negative zone after five quarters of positive GDP. Massimo Dona, Secretary National Consumers Union, “with a return” to zerovirgola ‘growth assumed by the government in the last document of economics and finance “is a mirage unless a come III and IV quarter of a nothing short of miraculous” . Renewed growth, continues Dona, turns from IRES cut: “Up to that household consumption grew by a paltry 0.1% in quarterly terms, not going anywhere, since they represent 60% of pil “.
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