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This article was published on December 17, 2014 at 10:36.
The last change is the December 17, 2014 at 11:32.
Italy this year will not come out of the recession. This is confirmed by Confindustria, which cuts further estimates of GDP. It confirms the return to growth in 2015. With a consolidation in 2016. The Study Centre of Confindustria, in his report “Economic scenarios”, speaks of a return to the increase in GDP in 2015 (+ 0.5%) with a consolidation in 2016 (+ 1.1%). For this year, the estimates are revised downwards, with a -0.5% (compared to -0.4% estimated in September). The positive GDP will thunder from the first quarter of 2015 with + 0.2%, then increased gradually over the years. In its report, entitled “The puzzle of the recovery – Corruption ballast for development”, CSC emphasizes that if “Italy managed to reduce corruption levels in Spain,” its rate of growth ‘annual increase of 0, 6 percentage points. ” And evokes burned nearly 300 billion over the past 20 years because of corruption. The tax burden is expected to 43.5% of GDP in 2014 and to 43.3% in 2015, to drop to 43.1% in 2016.
GDP down in 2014 (-0 , 5%), back in 2015 (+ 0.5%) and 2016 (+1.1%)
The Study Centre of Confindustria estimates that Italian GDP closes 2014 with a decline of 0 , 5% and expected to rise beginning in 2015 with a + 0.5%, consolidating the recovery in 2016 with a + 1.1%. The CSC confirms the estimate on the 2015 and indicates the further increase in the next year. The 2015-2016 promises to be “a two-year period of gradual recovery for Italy,” albeit “with caution”, in a “context enigmatic.” The global economic scenario looks “much better than three months ago,” reflecting strong growth in global demand for oil cheaper ($ 70 per barrel, compared to 104 in September and indicated a current stock price is approaching the 60), the euro weaker. In particular, the collapse of oil prices, fell by over a third in the space of a few weeks, for Italy means “a gain of 14 billion per year. And an impact of + 0.3% o f GDP in 2015 and another 0.5% in 2016 “. But uncertainty “remains the main obstacle” to recovery.
Unemployment at 12.7% in 2014, employment dates in spring
The unemployment rate has exceeded 13% in the current year in the fall and reaches 14 , 2% “when you consider the massive use of the IGC.” According to the Study Centre of Confindustria, unemployment will amount to 12.7% in 2014 and “starts to decline slowly from the second half of 2015″ (which will close anyway to 12.9%) and will come ‘to 12.6% in 2016 . “The number of people who lack work, in whole or in part – said the CSC – has reached 8.6 million last summer. Particularly serious is the fact that 43.3% of those aged between 15 and 24 seeking employment do not find it. ” For the CSC, “with the gradual recovery in GDP since the beginning of 2015, the demand for labor will strengthen gradually over the next two years,” the occupation “to grow again by spring 2015, after remaining idle for the whole 2014. “
Tax burden falling since 2015, to 43.1% in 2016
The tax burden is expected to 43.5% of GDP for the ‘year,’ to 43.3% in 2015, the same level of 2013 to drop to 43.1% in 2016 “. The numbers, emphasizes Confindustria, accounting for a question, do not include “the effect of stabilizing the bonus of € 80 provided for in the draft bill stability.” Taking them into account, “the tax burden would fall to 42.8% of GDP in 2015 and to 42.5% the following year. The effective rate of taxation on GDP adjusted by submerged will rise to 49.1% this year, will return to 48.9% in 2015 as in 2013, and will fall to 48.7% in 2016. “
Corruption ballast for the economy: in 20 years lost 200 billion
In his analysis CSC emphasizes how corruption depress GDP, and represents “a ballast for ‘economy’, so that if “Italy managed to reduce corruption levels in Spain, goal certainly not impossible given that the distance is 0.7 points, its annual growth rate would increase by 0.6 percentage points’ .L’Italia is bringing up the rear on corruption among developed countries, behind Turkey and Spain with Denmark and Germany in first and second place. “If with clean hands Italy had reduced corruption at the level of France,” that is one point less, “the GDP in 2014 would be nearly 300 billion more, about 5 thousand euro per person” in this period of over twenty year old.
Return of the deficit is gradual or risks voltages
The fiscal consolidation will continue, but according to Confindustria, “We must proceed gradually along the path of return of the public deficit , so you do not nail the country to stagnation equally unbearable on the political and social and harbinger of populist initiatives. ” The CSC estimates a net debt of Pa to 3% of GDP this year, 2.7% in 2015 and 2.5% in 2016. As for the public debt, in 2014, will rise to 132.2% of GDP, in 2015 will touch the 133.8% before dropping to 133.7% in 2016.
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