Japan, surprisingly revised down the GDP in the third quarter – Il Sole 24 Ore

Japan, surprisingly revised down the GDP in the third quarter – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on December 8, 2014 at 07:16.
The last change is the December 8, 2014 at 08:10.

TOKYO – Surprisingly, the revision of the Japanese gross domestic product for the third quarter was down rather than the upside: it is the confirmation that Japan is in a recession, even a little ‘deeper than indicated in the preliminary estimates.

The GDP for the period from July to September shrank to an annualized rate of 1.9% (-1.6% instead of the provisional estimates), representing a decrease of 0.5% (and 0.4%) on the previous quarter. The deterioration of the forecasts is due primarily to a reading less favorable capital investment enterprises (down by 0.4% instead of 0.2% mentioned above), while the data on personal consumption remained unchanged (+ or, 4%). Even the figure on public investment is found below the preliminary figure (+ 1.4% instead of + 2.2%).

In the second quarter, GDP had declined to an annualized rate of 7.3 percent.
And ‘bad news for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who has called early elections for December 14 (but the Japanese can already go to vote these days) as a referendum sull’Abenomics, ie on the set of his econ omic policies. The day after the news of the fall of the economy in recession _ linked to the rise in VAT 8% took last April – Abe had decided to delay for 18 months a further VAT increase to 10% and to dissolve the Lower House to try to hitch a new “full mandate” of four years by voters. His campaign is set on the economy, with the slogan: “There is an alternative route to economic recovery.” Surveys indicate that still the Liberal Party of Abe conseguira` a great victory, including a record turnout and a weak and fragmented opposition.
Economists expect in the current quarter the Japanese economy back on the road to moderate recovery in the context of a recovery in consumption after the strong negative impact – lasted longer than expected – due to the increased pressure of indirect taxation.

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