ECONOMY
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Rome
“It is – said the President of Unioncamere, Ferruccio Dardanello – a very first and still weak signal, certainly not fully able to recover to the country ‘road’ lost in these years of recession: in fact nearly 7 percentage point decline in household consumption accumulated in 2012 and 2013 “.
We should add that on family budgets can be glimpsed some pitfalls. The first will affect food consumption, touching two foods prince of the Mediterranean diet: the extra virgin olive oil, whose price consumption, due to a disastrous season, could suffer – estimated analysis – an increase in production 35% at year end, which will result in an increase in consumer prices by about 15%; the pasta, the cost of which is expected to grow by at least 8% as a result of an increase in the source of 40% of the price of durum wheat. Another sore point that tariffs: the local public, according to the most recent estimates of the Observatory of prices, should increase overall by 9.5% in 2013-2014. A growing mainly waste (+ 18.2% between 2014 and 2013), health care (+ 6.7%), the regional rail transport (+ 6.8%), urban transport (+ 6%) and the extra-urban (+ 7.5%). Given that the average inflation in the period was 1.4%, it is all too evident that “the game” between inflation and rates is closing with a resounding 10 to 1.
The summer and autumn months marked a further decline of the Italian economy, with GDP values that have continued to record changes slightly negative sign. Fears now move on in 2015, as growth forecasts have been revised downward. According to the Observatory “Prices and markets” we are on the eve of a crucial year for the fate of our country: the measures envisaged by the Stability Law, focuses on reducing taxes and income support, from the confirmation of the bonus of 80 € to ‘advance of severance pay in payroll, are called to re-start domestic demand. The postponement to 2017 of a balanced structural budget, together with the lack of coverage in a part of the maneuver, inaugurate a new era of fiscal policy in our country, finally time to produce expansionary effects on the na tional economy. It now remains to verify the mount of resources that will actually be received by the spending review and the fight against tax evasion and the possible effects that will have on the 2016. In fact, the failure to meet the budget balances of 2015 in 2016 would activate the clause preservation, and therefore a possible new increase in VAT (would affect the reduced rate and the ordinary – who insist on about three quarters of consumer spending – in a measure equal 2 percentage points), with recessionary effects from which would hard to get out.
A context of wage particularly moderate, especially in the service sector, will be accompanied by lower inflation of values around zero. In the coming months, these factors will also join the fall of commodity prices on the upstream market, the downsizing of oil, now dropped to around $ 70 a barrel and that will influence the cost of fuel and the transport of goods, the return the prices of food commodities.
The same food inflation to production, according to surveys of the Observatory at the central purchasing of supermarket chains and retail chains, is already negative (-0.7% year-on-year) and should continue on a total the downward trend in the months to come, despite the tensions of some typical products of the Mediterranean diet (wheat, olive oil). Even on the wholesale fruit and vegetable markets are quoted prices in the name of moderation, to the point that on some kinds of fruits and vegetables are observed levels of the lowest prices in comparison to the pre-euro.
Estimates of ‘Observatory, consumer price inflation will remain anchored under half a percentage point of growth in 2015.
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