The IMF revised its growth forecast for Italy. The GDP of Italy will grow this year by 0.5% (+0.1 percentage points compared with the estimates of January), and then accelerate to 1.1% in 2015 (+0.3). The IMF forecasts are lower than those of the government, which provides a + 0.7% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016.
Cut estimates US growth; Eurozone GDP + 1.5% in 2015 – The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revises downwards its growth estimates for the United States. The American GDP will grow this year and next by 3.1%, respectively 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points lower than the estimates of January. Magazine instead upward growth in the euro: the GDP will rise ‘in 2015 by 1.5% in 2016 and 1.6%, respectively 0.3 and 0.2 percentage points higher than in January.
Unemployment Italy in 2015 to 12.6% in 2016 to 12.3% – In Italy this year, the unemployment rate will amount to 12.6% and 12.3 % in 2016. So the IMF. In Euroland “as well as macroeconomic policies for the low demand, priorities’ are less taxes that discourage employment, including a lower tax wedge, training programs and active policies for the labor market.”
D ebito Italy at 133.8% in 2015, 132.9% in 2016 – The Italian debt will amount to 133.8% this year and in 2016 to 132.9%. It provides for the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In 2020, the debt would amount to 122.4%. The IMF then improves forecasts on Italian debt. In October, in fact, the Fund had estimated a ratio of debt to GDP in 2015 and 136.4% to 134.1% in 2016.
Shooting Euroland fragile, risk stagnation – Nell ‘ Eurozone there are signs of a strengthening of growth, but risks remain such as low inflation and stagnation. So the IMF, describing the euro area recovery as “fragile” and calling for a “comprehensive strategy, on more ‘fronts’. The chances of deflation in the euro dropped below 30%. The IMF urges euro area to move ahead with structural reforms, addressing the question of impaired loans to strengthen bank balance sheets and improve the transmission of monetary policy. But also fiscal policy neutral, with a balance between supporting growth and stability of the debt. “The countries with room for maneuver in terms of the budget should do more to enhance growth, with investment in infrastructure – says the IMF -.
The countries with limited budget maneuver should use the new flexibility of the Stability Pact for investment and structural reforms. ” These must “be implemented to increase productivity and growth in the medium term, boost investment and encourage hiring. The priorities include greater flexibility of the labor market and products, deregulation to remove barriers to investment and progress towards a more integrated common market. ” “The high debt, high unemployment and investor pessimism about the prospects for robust growth continue to weigh on demand” highlights the Fund, stating that “the uncertainty and investor pessimism on the euro to resolve address its economic difficulties probably will weigh on confidence, as well as national and global developments. “
Inflation down, in Euroland remains below target ECB -” Inflation is expected decline in 2015 is in the advanced economies is on most emerging markets, reflecting the impact of declining oil prices. ” This was stated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), providing for the euro area that prices will remain below the 2% target of the ECB both in 2015 and in 2016 (0.1% in 2015 and 1.0% in 2016) . The action of the ECB has stopped the decline in inflation expectations.
From declining oil prices can boost GDP, up to +1% – The drop in oil prices can be translated in a boost to GDP up to 1% by 2016. And ‘the estimate of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which states that “if the drop in oil prices globally were fully passed on to final prices, the global GDP could rise by 1% by 2016. If the decline was not transferred entirely to final prices, the increase in global GDP would be half. “
+ 3.5% world GDP in 2015 , increase growth is priority – The world economy will grow in 2015 by 3.5% and in 2016 by 3.8%. And ‘because it provides the IMF, leaving unchanged the estimate of this year and by 0.1 percentage points reviewing upward growth in 2016. “The risks to the global economy are more balanced than six months ago, but remain bearish . The macroeconomic risks decreased slightly, but the financial and geopolitical increased “the IMF said, noting that increasing the current growth and potential and ‘still a priority. Among the risks to the global economy there are tensions related to Greece and the strong dollar. “A further sharp appreciation of the dollar could trigger financial tensions in other parts of the world, especially in emerging markets,” the IMF said, noting that the high cost of the dollar is one of the risks with the possible resurgence of financial tensions in the euro triggered by ‘political uncertainty related to Greece or political turmoil. Factors that could intensify the relationship between banks, sovereign debt and the real economy.
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