Rome, April 4, 2014 – The next Def will be more optimistic than expected . For this year almost certainly indicate a economic growth of 0.7% -0.8% (compared with 0.6% predicted by the EU Commission), while for 2016 speaks of possibility of reaching 1.5% (1.3% according to Brussels). Matteo Renzi tried to go even further, but the Ministry of Economy slows. Also because from the point of view of the image, this is the argument that in the end it seems to have taken hold of Palazzo Chigi, it is better to correct the data upward instead of downward. Another important effect of image, especially in the eyes of Brussels, would be able to write down on paper that the safeguard clauses are thawed not it is needed most. It is increases in VAT and excise duties for more than 16 billion .
The temptation is strong, but the final decision has not been taken. Also because the yard Def is not yet closed. The government iniziarà examination of the Document of economics and finance, said that the guidelines of the next Budget, next Tuesday, but approval will come the final day: Friday, April 10 . Between now and then will continue calculations and simulations. The deficit in 2015 should be confirmed at 2.6% , while for the next year the aim is to use as much as possible the space of flexibility offered by the new communication of the European Commission on 13 January (up to a maximum of 0.5% of GDP equal to 7-8 billions to those who implement reforms stringent). Therefore, the deficit is expected to narrow ‘only’ 1.7% -1.8% by returning to a balanced budget 2018- 2019 (now zero deficit is set for 2017). The more resources should be focused on measures to hook the recovery: employment and investment at the local level first, loosening the internal stability pact.
The optimism of Government, held back only by positive data on industrial production and turnover-orders of business, due to the fact that the Treasury is putting hay in the barn. The return of foreign capital would bring in between 3 and 5 billion. The reduction of interest rates, ie the spread, should make 4000000000-5000000000 . Essentially public accounts could count on a bonus $ 7-10 billion that you would associate the deviation on the flexibility and the fruits of the reforms. Added to this are the positive effects of an oil price at the least, the powerful liquidity injections coming from the ECB, a weaker euro that acts as a flywheel export. Sure unemployment worries a lot, but you count that the de-contribution for new employees on permanent contracts (these are mainly stabilize precarious) can give the little ‘certainty needed to kick-start domestic consumption that are always at stake.
An important role should also play the spending review . Figures stable on cuts in public spending (currently 800 billion a year) yet there are none. The government relies on many voices: massive application of standard costs to determine the extent of the transfers to local authorities, the cutting of the subsidiaries of municipalities and regions, Pa reform, reorganization of the police, new evaluation criteria costs on public works, removal of 30 thousand contracting with the enlargement of the scope of Consip. The plan Cottarelli also included to put his hand to the 721 tax breaks. You will see.
OLIVIA Posani
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