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This article was published on December 16, 2014 at 07:20.
The last change is the December 16, 2014 at 16:13.
The situation “critical” that the ruble is living in the currency markets “would not have been imaginable a year ago, even in the worst nightmares, “says Sergei Shvezov, vice president of the Russian Central Bank. The Russian currency than the 100 per euro: took only a few minutes, on Tuesday morning, to realize that the spectacular move of Bank Rossii, who the night before had brought interest rates from 10.5 to 17% in a desperate attempt to stop the collapse of the ruble, would not be enough, the effect sold out in no time. After regaining his breath at the opening of the markets, the ruble had returned to fall to new lows: 80 rubles to the dollar, even 100 euro, before rising share around 90.
To give an idea of the storm that hit the Russian currency, considering that three months ago they served 50 rubles to buy a euro. In what analysts have called “judgment day” for the ruble, oil fell for the first time since July 2009 under the threshold of $ 60 a barrel. Travolta also the Moscow Stock Exchange, which lost 19%, the worst slump since 1995.
The Russian banks engaged in the markets of the exchange, the newspaper Izvestia wrote this morning, are starting to buy billboards to five, not four boxes: but probably never imagined they need it so soon. As said Shvezov, the barrier of a change of more than 100 rubles seemed insurmountable. Thus, the Central Bank of the Russian call to rescue now seems a battle against an uncontrollable force: if the repeated increases applied so far (six from March) are not served, in the night of Monday, Russian, at the end of a meeting convened in Emergency, Bank Rossii dared – even here – beyond a threshold incredible.
As a desperate move, or to prove that they are ready for anything: the decision says the institute led by Elvira Nabiullina in a statement referred to as “important”, is “to contain the risk of depreciation of the ruble, increased substantially, and the risk of higher inflation. ” That is moving towards double figures. All this just to rebuild a little ‘confidence in the Russian economy? And to make the ruble to find a foothold? The market turmoil, said Tuesday afternoon’s spokesman Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, “are driven by emotions and moods speculative.” (Follow the euro-ruble in real time).
Economists repeat that, given the best conditions of Russian reserves accumulated over the years, it is not appropriate to make comparisons with the crisis of 1998, the terrible August that led to the devaluation of the ruble and the Kremlin’s default on its debt. But that year remains as a reference point to give the idea of the pace of the fall, and the gravity of the situation: Monday, before the announcement of the Central Bank, the Russian currency had fallen more than 10% against the dollar, dragged in ‘abyss by the expectation of new drop of oil. Involving increasingly worrying consequences for an economy that relies quarter GDP on energy, and accounts on a price that crude oil has now abandoned. If we remain at current levels, around 60 dollars a barrel, the contraction for the Russian GDP in 2015 could grow from “zero point” in the 4.5 to 4.7%, the Central Bank has warned. Contributing to sink even further the ruble, which now in thi s terrible year has halved its value.
Before announcing its decision on interest rates, Bank Rossii intervened several times, on Monday, to try to save the ruble. But the 80 billion spent so far were not enough reserves. And this is draining their resources that feeds the panic, because the basis on which it can rely Russia will not last indefinitely. Will be tested not only by the decline in oil prices, the deadlines on the debts of banks and companies can no longer rely on international funding, because of the sanctions. And on these spoke yesterday the Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov: I have serious reason to suppose, he repeated, that behind the sanctions there is the will of the United States to destabilize the situation and change the government in Russia. That, according to Lavrov, “overestimated the independence of the EU and some major European countries by the US.”
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