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This article was published on December 16, 2014 at 07:20.
The last change is the December 16, 2014 at 13:00.
The spectacular move of the Russian Central Bank, which on Monday night has brought interest rates 10.5 to 17% in a desperate attempt to stop the collapse of the ruble, has effect only for a few minutes. After regaining his breath opening of markets, on Tuesday morning, the Russian currency has returned to fall to new lows: 72 rubles to the dollar, the euro 90. Already analysts call this “judgment day” for the ruble, while oil goes down for the first time since July 2009 under the threshold of $ 60 a barrel. Travolta also the Moscow Stock Exchange, which lost 10%.
The Russian banks engaged in the markets of the exchange, the newspaper Izvestia wrote this morning, are starting to buy billboards to five, not four boxes: now the ruble is likely to break a barrier unthinkable a few weeks ago , a euro or a dollar at a rate of 100, more than two decimal places. And that the Russian Central Bank called on to defend it now seems a battle against an uncontrollable force: if the repeated increases applied so far (six from March) are not served, in the night of Monday, Russian, at the end of a meeting convened in emergency , Bank Rossii dared – again – a threshold beyond incredible.
As a desperate move, or to prove that they are ready for anything: the decision says the institute led by Elvira Nabiullina in a statement referred to as “important”, is “to contain the risk o f depreciation of the ruble , increased substantially, and the risk of higher inflation. ” That is moving towards double figures. All this just to rebuild a little ‘confidence in the Russian economy? And to make the ruble to find a foothold? The Kremlin says they do not want to comment on the decisions of the Central Bank (follow the euro-ruble in real time).
Economists repeat that, given the best conditions of Russian reserves accumulated over the years, it is not appropriate to make comparisons with the crisis of 1998, that terrible August that led to the devaluation of the ruble and the Kremlin’s default on its debt. But that year remains as a reference point to give the idea of the pace of the fall, and the gravity of the situation: Monday, before the announcement of the Central Bank, the Russian currency had fallen more than 10% against the dollar, dragged in ‘abyss by the expectation of new drop of oil. Involving increasingly worrying consequences for an economy that relies quarter GDP on energy, and accounts on a price that crude oil has now abandoned. If we remain at current levels, around 60 dollars a barrel, the contraction for the Russian GDP in 2015 could grow from “zero point” in the 4.5 to 4.7%, the Central Bank has warned. Contributing to sink even further the ruble, which now in th is terrible year has halved its value.
Before announcing its decision on interest rates, Bank Rossii intervened several times, on Monday, to try to save the ruble. But the 80 billion spent so far were not enough reserves. And this is draining their resources that feeds the panic, because the basis on which it can rely Russia will not last indefinitely. Will be tested not only by the decline in oil prices, the deadlines on the debts of banks and companies can no longer rely on international funding, because of the sanctions. To resolve the situation, it would be enough to reverse the course of a shift of capital, this year alone, have left the country at a rate of $ 120 billion. In his recent address to the nation, Vladimir Putin spoke of amnesty for the assets that fall, but this does not seem like other initiatives have not convinced the markets. It is not the first time they hear these promises.
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