Friday, April 17, 2015

Bankitalia: good Jobs Act, improve consumer confidence and families, but … – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published April 17, 2015 at 15:40.
The last change is the April 17, 2015 at 19:18.

They increase the positive signs for the Italian economy, but the recovery is still far from consolidated. This reading of the current economic situation and the economic framework of the Bank of Italy. “In Italy – explains via Nazionale in its latest economic bulletin – have intensified signals favorable economic”, even if the restart of the economic cycle is still very shy. To do well sperarare is particularly the labor market: households and businesses in fact “foreshadow the coming months a slight improvement in employment prospects, which may also have contributed to the tax relief introduced in January and the regulations set forth by the Jobs Act, in force from March. “

Improves household confidence, consumption in slight recovery
also continuing” slow recovery “in consumption and improves the confidence of Italian households . “Household spending – explains Bankitalia – continues to increase, albeit modest, supported mainly by purchases of durable goods. In the first months of the year the climate of confidence showed a marked improvement, driven primarily by the prospects on the general economic situation, ranking in March on the maximum levels since June 2002. ” According to the Bank of Italy, “the slow recovery of private consumption, in place since the summer of 2013, continued in the last quarter of last year (0.1% compared to the previous period), however, supported only by the increase in spending on durable goods and services (0.3% for both), compared to a decrease in other consumption. ”

Well domestic demand thanks to government macroeconomic policies
The purchasing power of households, while decreasing compared with the third quarter (-0.5%), “it is confirmed at levels higher than those of the first part of 2014, also benefiting from the measures in favor of families with low and middle income introduced in the law of stability. ” Another important contribution to the (slow) recovery underway arrived then by macroeconomic policies of the government, whose impulse “has increased significantly in recent quarters and created the conditions for a recovery in domestic demand, in addition to consolidating the benefits of the foreign one. ” This was stated by the Bank of Italy. Now serving “a raise potential output” and “a sustainable growth in jobs.”

Strengthen growth insisting reforms
On the measures to support the application, then the Bank of Italy recommends contacting the Legislature, “you must accompany actions to raise the growth potential. The exit of Italy from the long recession requires strong measures from both the demand and supply. ” To achieve the goal “is essential to continue the action of reform: the improvement of the regulatory environment and conditions for investing may affect the ability of Italian companies to respond and adapt successfully to the structural changes taking place in the world economy,” concludes Via Nazionale.

They improve credit conditions but still down to business loans
Among the aspects analyzed by the Bank of Italy Bulletin also the credit market, from which signals are also positive if they continue to decline business loans. “According to surveys conditions for supply of credit to businesses is enhanced – reads the document released today dallistituto of vaia National – but remain differentiated by company size and sector of economic activity.” Italian banks, Bank of Italy recalls, “are completing transposition in the financial results of the comprehensive assessment.” In this scenario, “the average lending rates have fallen, although remain higher than the corresponding values ​​for the euro area; is likely to be reduced in the coming months due to the drop in market yields. ”

Slight increase in GDP in the first quarter of 2015
The signals substantially positive for the national economy recorded on several fronts by Bank of Italy are reflected in the data on GDP in first quarter, that “it would be slightly increased” in particular thanks to the growth of industrial production. “After the slight recovery of the end of 2014 – states the report – the industrial production would grow, according to our estimates, only modestly in the first months of the year; Based on these data, the product in the first quarter would be slightly increased. “

Magazines upward growth estimates in 2015 and 2016
Going forward, the plan quantitative easing from the ECB, if fully implemented, will according to the Bank of Italy Italian GDP growth of over 0.5% in 2015 and around 1.5% in 2016. Magazines therefore upward growth forecasts estimated in previous economic bulletin, which indicated a GDP to 0.4% this year and 1.2% next year.



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