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This article was published April 14, 2015 at 15:07.
The last change is the April 14, 2015 at 18:14.
In the advanced economies, growth is expected to strengthen in 2015 while in emerging economies and in those that are being development should be weaker than last year. It is the estimate given by the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), which confirms for 2015 and 2016 forecasts for global growth respectively + 3.5% and + 3.8%, although with different trends. In the current year, in fact, advanced countries will expand by 2.4% (estimate unchanged both for 2015 and for 2016) from 1.8% last year, “thanks to the decline in crude oil prices» . Emerging economies and developing instead suffer a slowdown, with growth seen at a + 4.3% in 2015 and a 4.7% in 2016 from + 4.6% in 2014 (in this case the expectations are the same as in January).
Estimates improved to Italy
In the tables of Weo improve the prospects for the Italian economy, in view of the expansion 0 , 5% this year. The estimates were raised by 0.1% compared with the update of last January. The Peninsula is thus recovering after a contraction of gross domestic product, for the Institute of Washington, was 0.4% in 2014 and 1.7% in 2013. Although the outlook for 2016 was slightly improved: now the Fund expects a 1.1%, 0.3% more than the previous calculations. The Fund estimates are still lower than those of the Italian government, which provide for a + 0.7% in 2015 and 1.4% in 2016.
In detail, the report predicts consumer prices in 2015 to 0% and next year to 0.8% against 0.2% in 2014. Unemployment is seen decline slightly this year and 12.6% in 2016 to 12.3%, against 12.8% in 2014. The deficit / GDP ratio Italian fall this year to 2.6% from 3.0% in 2014, before declining to ’1.7% in 2016. The Italian debt will amount in 2015 to 133.8% and in 2016 to 132.9%. In 2020, the debt would amount to 122.4 percent.
Corre Spain, Germany well
Italy is not the only one inside the ‘euro area was to be the star of an upward revision of growth estimates by the International Monetary Fund. Germany, France and Spain are seen to raise even further the prospects of GDP. According to the tables of the World Economic Outlook, the report on the global economy prepared at the time of the Spring Meetings of the Fund that are going to gain momentum in Washington, the locomotive of Europe is expected to grow by 1.6% this year and not more than 1.3% as estimated in the January to the WEO.
This is a performance identical to that recorded in 2014 and obviously better than that of 2013, when there was a + 0.2%. For 2016 retouching estimates is 0.2% to 1.7%. In France, the IMF expects for the current year in a GDP increase of 1.2% and no more ‘by 0.9% while for the next year and expected a 1.5%, 0.2 % more of the calculations beginning 2015. According to the Fund, the French economy had seen an expansion of 0.3% in 2013 and 0.4% in 2014. As for Spain, the upward revision is stronger, the 0.5% to + 2.5% in 2015 after 1.2% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014. For 2016, GDP is seen rise of 2%, 0.2% in more than expected previously.
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