IMF raises estimates on GDP italiano.Ma remains more pessimistic government – The Messenger

There is a slight optimism in the most in the last World Economic Outlook of the International Monetary Fund, the report on the global economy, published as part of the spring meetings. The organization based in Washington has indeed improved the growth estimates for the eurozone this year and those on global growth for 2016.

Even the prediction is on Italy, a little ‘surprise, better from the previous estimate. The United States, however, will slow down a bit ‘pace while maintaining enviable growth. Specifically, in 2015 the global economy is expected to post a GDP of 3.5%, as indicated in the previous update, therefore slight increase over the 3.4% recorded in the previous two years. In 2016, however, the forecast is for a 3.8%, 0.1% more than the previous calculations of the Fund. The driving force will be the advanced economies, having expanded by 2.4% (estimate for 2015 is unchanged for both 2016) thanks to the decline in crude oil. Emerging economies and developing instead suffer a slowdown in growth, given to a + 4.3% in 2015 and a 4.7% in 2016 from + 4.6% in 2014. In general, According to the Fund Monetary risks to global growth are now more balanced than six months ago, but continue to point downward. As the Eurozone, for this year is expected to expand by 1.5%, 0.3% higher than the estimates of last January. The figure compares with 0.9% in 2014 and -0.5% in 2013. For 2016 it is expected instead a + 1.6%, 0.2% more than the calculations always start year . The estimates have been improved thanks to lower crude oil prices, low interest rates, the depreciation of the euro and the shift towards a broadly neutral fiscal policy.

More optimism about Italy, for which the Fund now estimates a GDP of 0.5% in 2015 and 1.1% in the following year, respectively, 0.1 and 0.3% more than the update made last January. This upward revision is more consistent than that performed on the economy overall. Unemployment will drop to 12.3% next year, the current account surplus in trade with foreign countries will remain consistent. Only inflation will hardly take off.

As for the United States, the IMF cut its growth forecasts for both this year and for the next. GDP is now expected to be 3.1% in 2015 which in 2016 while previous estimates were higher respectively by 0.5% and 0.2%. According to the Organization, the Federal Reserve should start raising interest rates in the second half of 2015. Staying on the subject of Central Banks, the Fund estimated that in the UK the monetary normalization should not take the first half of 2016. In the Eurozone and Japan’s policy will remain “very accommodating” much longer.