the Minister, let’s start from the election of Donald Trump. What consequences will have on the economy?
“The consequences,” answered the minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, ” are still difficult to decipher because the ads that are coming from Trump and his team can lead in different directions. It is a mix of increased public spending in infrastructure, deregulation of the markets, a revival of protectionism, abatement of taxes. You have to understand how all these things can be together. In the meantime, however, an element that is more certain is that the markets take it for granted that inflation will start to rise. This expectation we start to riscontrarla also on the rates of the government securities”.
The inflation would be the only good news in a framework that troubles you?
“Well, we’ll see. Deregulation may remove a framework of rules designed to make markets more stable after the crisis of 2007. But my biggest concern is the possible closing of borders. It speaks to renege on the agreement in the Nafta that covers North America and a business relationship with China in terms of confrontation. Now, if you close down the markets, the uncertainty will increase and this is not good news, even for us.”
If then in Italy were to win the no in the constitutional referendum? Bank of italy warns on the volatility of the markets. He does not believe that these messages, giving the impression that the elite and the banks want to the yes, may have the opposite effect?
“No. The markets are more nervous because there is uncertainty over the continuation of the reform process. But this is a fact and it is normal that financial markets in the register and the central bank the signals. It is not a matter of alarm to be of the elite or of a plot”.
Meanwhile, the spread, the differential between the rates on Italian government securities and German, began to increase.
“Is a common phenomenon, linked to the expectations on us inflation. The rates have gone up a bit in the whole of Europe, there is a risk of Italy, but nervousness on the continuation of the reforms”.
What are the reforms?
“I Do just an example. The reform of title V of the Constitution makes the transition from Regions to the State many of the competences on public health, on tourism, on active labour market policies. Due to this change will decrease the disputes between the different levels of government, will improve the processes of spending, will improve the quality of services to the public and will be easier and faster to realize infrastructure investments”.
the Minister, find the quadra on the manoeuvring was difficult. It is said that his discomfort vis-à-vis the premier, Matteo Renzi, would rise to the point that they think of the resignation?
“it’s A nonsense that makes me laugh. Occasionally stands out, but it just span in the air”.
But she shares the constant criticism of Renzi to the european commission and the threat of the veto on the budget of the program of the Eu?
“there is no threat. Italy respects the rules but considers that it should be changed to orient economic policies towards growth. The veto would be only the coherent response if the Eu does not accommodate our requests for resources to be allocated to the migration emergency. We do not want conflicts with Europe but it is time to learn the lesson that comes from Brexit and the election of Trump. If Europe does not change, risks a lot. There is a widespread discontent. In the United States, in Europe and also in Italy. And the Eu is not seen as the solution but as the problem. Europe cannot afford to remain still. Must put the development, growth, investment and employment the center of its agenda”.
Meanwhile, the Eu commission asks Italy for an adjustment of the manoeuvre from 5 billion to prevent the opening of an infringement procedure. You can do it?
“my reading is different. The maneuver is based on four pillars. Two have to do with exceptional circumstances: earthquakes and migrants. Others involve the resources for investment and to increase the inclusion of interventions on a minimum pension and poverty. I am convinced that the most growth of the gross domestic product will have a positive impact on deficit and debt, bridging the differences with respect to the commission’s analysis”.
The budget does not change?
“No, it does not change. The public finance targets will be achieved with the most growth”.
the fact Remains that the maneuver rests for 12 billion on an increase in the deficit and 6.3 on the reopening of the voluntary disclosure, auction frequencies, and other one-off measures. A system is fragile.
“No. It is a system that is consistent with the previous laws of Stability, development-oriented. The borrowing helps to finance investments, but the deficit drops compared to previous years and also the debt begins to decline from 2017. And we avoided a rise in Vat for more than 15 billion, as expected by the safeguard clauses”.
That have not been removed for the 2018 and even increased for 2019. The next manoeuvres are pledged, respectively, to 19.7 billion and 23.3 billion. You can go on like this?
“You are going forward on a line of policy balance that supports growth. It is a phase of transition towards stronger growth of the economy, which requires these gradual changes”.
the Minister, a year has passed from the failure of the 4 banks but while they are parties flat-rate refunds is not yet possible to access to the arbitrator, as provided for by the law, for investors who wanted it or who are not eligible for refunds automatic. He does not believe that the government should apologize for the serious delay?
“The government has meanwhile put in place the reimbursement automatic, that are taking share. We are trying to understand what speed has this component of reimbursement, and at that point we will be able to start the arbitration. The delay is due to the will first verify the operation of the refund mechanism and the automatic.
Not like that on the Mps you profiles of a bail in the masked? The holders of the subordinated bonds is prompted to convert them into actions and warned them that if the operation will fail, and then you will not be able to do the capital increase, the bank will fail.
“it is Not a bail in the masked but an operation of the voluntary conversion of the subordinated bonds, which involves, among others, institutional investors are well aware of these mechanisms. The information to the clients with all the risks of the case are required by law according to the criteria of transparency”.
Unicredit, which today is in the bag about 12 billion, has need of a capital increase by 13 billion. As I come out of it? It speaks of the intervention of the French Société Générale. The results?
“, Unicredit is the second bank in the Country, a solid bank that has diversification of its business. Is considering the sale of some assets. The plan of recapitalization will strengthen the bank. Involvement of other banks in the Unicredit not I speak”.
the Minister, in case he won the no, you will need a government “purpose,” and is his name. She is available?
“First of all, will win the yes. And however, it is a scenario that is completely fanciful”.
November 20, 2016 (change the 20 November 2016 | 10:07)
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