The mutual distrust is already a vote, and urges to flee the bank of Italy: “Waiting for volatility” – Corriere della Sera

Is a movie that seems to have already seen the approach of the 23rd of June, the date of the referendum to the English that led to the decision of the United Kingdom to exit the European Union. And in the weeks preceding the November 8 american that led to the election of Donald Trump. A movie in which the world’s economy come signs of fears about possible developments post-vote. It was the Bank of Italy yesterday to report the fact that the week of the Italian market around the 4th of December will be characterized by volatility. Volatility means continuous development in the up and down price trends not defined. A unstable situation. That is of concern to the Bank of Italy for its financial stability as one of his key principles.

Banks fiaccate

the markets do their job. That is to interpret and possibly to anticipate the evolution of the facts. Imagine that Italy will be after the vote. And there seems to be a belief on the part of the market. Rightly or wrongly, the equation, unfortunately, banal, wrong, probably, is that the victory of the Yes would show that the Country wants to reform, this is Not the case. Forgetting that Italy reform of the Constitution has made (the last was in 2012 on article 81 regarding the inclusion of a balanced Budget). But market indicators show a tendency to withdraw confidence in our Country. And then a boost to the volatility of the spoken of by the Bank of Italy, which from his point of view is photographing a situation made evident by the trend of the spread and Stock indices. On those indexes, however, affect the situation of some banks fiaccate from one of the most profound crisis of the contemporary Italy. And so, remain in the background of the undoubted a bility of the Country in terms of the reaction of the enterprises, manufacturing export, which make Italy much more sophisticated in economic terms, although with strong problems of a Greece or other countries to which it is sometimes equated.

there are No numbers to guide the choices

all-Too-often identifies the market with the speculators. That there are. And that can give jolts to the financial markets. But the markets are pension funds, institutional investors, the savers, who tend to the stability, not chaos. Based their choices on the trust that a Country is able to convey to their partners in the economic and financial. Markets to buy and sell according to the numbers, such as those of the public budget. But in the case of a vote are not the numbers to guide the choices. As far as what will happen after an election. In these last weeks in Italy, it became clear that the battle for a referendum is being conducted on the wire of the mutual distrust between the two sides of the Yes and the No. Distrust which is the most powerful weapon to escape those who invest.

November 18, 2016 (change on November 18, 2016 | 23:26)

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