Friday, November 18, 2016

The Referendum, polls award the No. Hunt undecided. Alert the bank of Italy – ANSA.it

hunting of the undecided to fifteen days from the referendum on the 4th of December, when it begins the period in which they can no longer be published in the surveys. The surveys made known today by the newspapers, albeit a very different one from the other, giving you all the advantage in the No, even if there is a large area of undecided. This situation, announced the Bank of Italy, will produce in the next few days a high “volatility” in the markets, which was a taste of the leap in the spread of 60 basis points, from 120 to 180. In this context, trigger scenarios, especially for a possible victory of the “no”.

The polls published today show the scissors of the benefit of No on Yes very different. By 10 points the Ipsos (Corriere della Sera), to the 7 Demos (the Republic) to the five of Euromedia (Messenger) to the 3 of Demopolis, (again Messenger). The thing that makes us glory in the face of No with Renato Brunetta, Matteo Salvini, Alessandro Di Battista. Maurizio Landini said that he is going to celebrate by eating cappelletti in broth to the exit of the scene of the “florentine genius”. The only one to urge caution is Roberto Calderoli.

On the front of the Yes you brimming with optimism, first of all, on the basis of recent surveys wrong on Brexit, on the Us elections and, going further back, on the various rounds of Italian (2006, 2013, european of 2014), as pointed out by Matteo Renzi, Pieferdinando Casini or the ministers Stefania Giannini and Carlo Calenda. A second reason insists Renzi: “I see the game completely open in the grounds of the undecided. I am convinced that the silent majority of italians knows how to choose on the basis of the question”.

In fact, the polls give the percentage of undecided that are very different: for Ipsos are 12%, while for Demos or Demopolis are even 25%. Not to mention that all the measurements give an abstention rate of nearly 50%. A topic that could lead to the Yes the undecided will be the ups and downs of the financial markets as we approach the 4th of December, you begin to have the signs, and announced today by the bank of Italy. For this ad, Palazzo Koch has suffered the barbs of Maurizio Gasparri, and Renato Brunetta, so far for the tv series of the commissioner Schiavone.

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