Saturday, November 19, 2016

Mps, not just bail-in in the adverse scenario – The Sun 24 Hours

The choice to prepare the way for the complicated recapitalisation of Mps from the day following the constitutional referendum is not random. If he wins the yes, the consortium led by JP Morgan and Mediobanca – which has signed a commitment to pre-underwriting, valid until 31 December – has to be able to close the operation in a few days with a sort of "private placement" that does not provide for the right of option in favour of the old shareholders. If, instead, you win the no, they could materialize the risks already highlighted in the information documents after having felt the pulse of the market. The strengthening of the balance sheet by 5 billion, as well as thought out, requires that all the pieces fall into place in a synchronized manner, would leap in the proposed formula. But would not necessarily be the bail-in – the-neck halter dropped on the stakeholders of Etruria & C. – the final solution.



Mps, to Consob, the prospectus of the Takeover bid on the bond

In reality, there is another scenario – if not a plan B that no one will confirm – that the Bag, where by days of rumors and speculation, it has already started to subodorare. In this scenario, as it was foreseen in the reference model of the four Greek banks, ricapitalizzate "force" to avoid bankruptcy last year, the conversion shares, the proposed 4.3 billion of bonds, subordinated in the case of Mps, then it would be from voluntary to mandatory. After a reset of the capital and have converted the bonds less protected, before to get in touch with the senior bonds as it would be in bail-in, could be the State or a vehicle the public to compensate for the shortfall with a subscription of new capital, the more so that in this case the State – to via of the Monti bonds – is already a shareholder. Of course it is a scenario that – if feasible – do not wish to no one, neither the banks in the consortium that, for the moment, merely to report tha t all construction sites are progressing.



Mps: conversion to 11 bond, 50% in the hands of small savers

And yet it is entirely rational choice to get rid of the bond on the part of small bondholders who had subscribed for in the mass (37mila savers) the subordinate issuing 2008-2018 2.1 billion,the price of which has fallen around 60 (-11% in two sessions) although it is offered to withdraw the securities to 100, provided that the reinvestirne the proceeds in new shares of the bank. With the uncertainties that still weighed on the plan, better to leave the risk to professional operators that are more equipped to handle it.

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