VIENNA – Opec is back. After months of negotiations, the Organization of exporters of crude oil managed to put all agree – including Iran and Iraq to cut the production of 1.2 million barrels per day. Not only. The group claims he can already count on the collaboration of Russia (what can be immediately confirmed by Moscow), and other non-Opec countries for a further reduction of the other 600 thousand barrels.
On the altar of understanding has been sacrificed Indonesia: the country, which, moreover, is a net importer of oil, will be released by the Organization, which was erientrata after a long absence, only last year.”It would be difficult to participate in this unanimous decision, he explained, Mohammed Al Sada, minister of Qatar and president of the Opec – so have chosen to autosospendersi”. All right, then? Or is it a bluff? Who knows. Since the first rumors filtered on the agreement, the market has gone mad: the price of a barrel came to earn almost 9%, reaching a peak of over 51 dollars in the case of the Brent (here are the latest prices of Brent and Wti).
Oil-Wti in dollars per barrel
History has taught us not to trust Opec and much less of the promises of collaboration to the cuts by Russia. It happened so often in the past that to huge announcements would not be following a consistent behavior, nor clear: the countries of the Organisation you are deceived countless times and also between them, in breach of unscrupulous the roofs of the production. Only Saudi Arabia and its allies in the Persian Gulf, have always kept faith with their commitments. As in Moscow, there is only one previous loyalty to Opec: on the contrary, every step back of the saudis has been used as an opportunity to win new customers.
Opec, the race against time for the understanding
The Opec this time he sought to prevent any mistrust: the production quotas of each member state have been published – something that had not happened more than ten years – and it has been established a monitoring committee that shall monitor the actual implementation of the cuts, and may also revoke them if there will not be the cooperation of countries outside the group. This committee will be part of the Algeria and Venezuela, which have contributed to the diplomatic efforts made to reach the agreement, the secretariat-general of Opec and two non-Opec countries, which will be shown shortly. On the 9th of December it will be a new meeting of the Opec-non-Opec, that Qatar has offered to host in Doha. Only at that point, you can do the math on the real external participation to the cuts. From Moscow, however the minister of Energy Alexander Novak has already confirmed yesterday evening that “Russia is ready to join the agreement” by cutting off the producti on of 300 thousand bg in the first half of 2017, albeit “gradually,” because of technical difficulties in the control of the flow from the wells. Novak – detail round the top of that negligible – has not even indicated what is the baseline for the cuts.
The choice for the Opec countries, and October 2016, and the figures are of a secondary source, as claimed by the saudis, who in the end are almost able to hold their own. Almost. Is the table with the data relating to the production and the cuts assigned to each country to raise concern. The accounts in fact do not come back, especially for Iran, which had been the most difficult country to convince: to Tehran is a base of well-3,975 million barrels a day, which is certainly not the production of October, and you can add – rather than cut – the other 90 bg, to get to 3,797 mbg. One hell of a mathematician, which, however, provide sources of Opec in the Sun 24 Hours – not a typo.
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