Istat lowers the estimates of growth, the risks from the tensions on the markets – The Republic

ROME - The gross domestic product will grow 0.8% this year, three tenths below the previous forecast, and 0.9% the next, a tenth less than expected by the government. Unemployment expected to decline to 11.5% at the end of 2016, but then slow its descent in 2017, additional data only up to 11.3%. There is confirmation that the economy tricolor is not yet really shared in the report released today by Istat on “the Outlook for the Italian economy”. With the risk of further write to the technicians of the Institute of statistics, that “the uncertainties linked to the rekindling of tensions on the financial markets to have an effect on the p ath of growth”. In the negative.

The Istat confirms the government estimates for growth in 2016 to 0.8%. To support the data, reads in the document of the Institute, it is mainly the domestic demand. This year, the consumption expenditure of households in real terms is estimated at an increase of 1.2%, fuelled by the increase in the disposable income and the improvement of the conditions of the labour market. Employment in Italy is expected to increase at the end of the year of 0.9% in terms of units of work, bringing the unemployment rate to 11.5%.

The next year, however, according to the Institute of statistics, this positive trend in the labour market should “slow down”, with an employment growth of 0.6% and a decrease in unemployment of just two-tenths, 11.3%. So, even if the internal demand will continue to rise by 1.1%, with the negative contribution of foreign demand, Istat provides a Gdp ascent of only 0.9%, one tenth below the estimates of the executive contained in the update note of the Def already considered optimistic by the Office of the parliamentary budget. “A recovery is more pronounced in the process of accumulation of capital could represent a further stimulus to growth in 2017″, writes the mayor, who stresses how, also thanks to the fiscal policies of the government, investment should accelerate to 2% this year and 2.7% next. “However, the rekindling of tensions on financial markets could also affect the growth.”

as far as the prices, according to Istat, are still in the course of downward pressures, especially for imported products. For consumer prices from springs, recorded a reversal of the trend and in the first months of 2017, it should be a slow recovery in inflation, which should capture the “intensity is more marked in the second part of the year.”

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istat

estimates

Gdp

– growth

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