Friday, November 25, 2016

The Mps sets the price. Action and bond under pressure – Milano Finanza

After the free way of meeting the river yesterday in Siena, on the night of the cd of the Mps , under the presidency of the newly-elected Alessandro Falciai has resolved to declare the indivisible capital increase from 5 billion “to be released in full by 31 December 2016, and the increase of paid share capital, with exclusion of the option right, “for a total maximum amount of 4.289.544.540,04 euro” of the Liability Management, or the conversion of the notes.

In mid-November, the bank announced the launch of a public purchase offer on 11 subordinated bonds, worth a total of 4,289 billion, with the obligation for the members to reinvest the proceeds in the capital increase.

Meanwhile, this morning the title has been opened with a decline 5.47% to 0,2175 euro and was immediately suspended. At 9:30 is returned to the exchange by selling a 6,77% share 0,2145 euro.-

Meanwhile, this morning the bond is subordinated Lower Tier II suffer from the actions: at 10:00 a.m. to bonds with a maturity date of 30 November 2017 (68,61 euros), on January 15, 2018 (58,07 eur) and September 9, 2020 (66,96 euros) have not yet marked a new price and are firm at the close of yesterday. The bond with maturity April 21, declined to 63.2 euros (66,95 closing yesterday) while those with a maturity of may 2018 are to 63,5 € (64,5).

Today, the bank specifies in its official note, that the maximum price for the subscription of the new shares was set at 24,9 per share, taking into account the grouping already announced (in the ratio of 1 new share for every 100 existing shares). The conversion will last 5 days, will commence on Monday, 28 November and finish on Friday 2 December. The increase from 5 billion, instead, it should take between 6 and 8 December and close to Christmas.

Today the document of the Mps specifies that, if the increase from 5 billion is not successful, the operaazione conversion of the bond will not be performed. Add to this that, in the explanatory notes published yesterday by the bank and the request by Consob prior to the meeting, it is written that the Mps estimated to collect 1,043 billion from the offer to purchase the subordinated and subsequent conversion of the amount into new shares of the Mps .

The bank expects membership to 57% by the perpetual (At1) corresponding to an amount of 221 million, to 34% from subordinated Lower Tier2 (614 million), to 10% from the Upper Tier2 (208 million).

In the note it is specified that “This capital increase will be released exclusively in money by re-investment of the proceeds of the purchase of the financial instruments the subject of the operations of Liability Management, already announced, through the issue of ordinary shares without nominal value, with regular dividend rights, in the maximum number that will be fixed in function of the relationship between the consideration for the purchase provided for each specific category of financial instruments covered by Lme and the subscription price of new shares”.

The board of directors has also decided, last night, that “any part of the capital increase at the service of the LME signed can be reserved for any other tranches of the capital increase overall”.

If the conversion of the bonds subordinated shares Mps did not have an outcome deemed to be satisfactory, the consortium banks could escape the commitment of ensuring the eventual inoptato. With the consequence that the bank would have more difficulties to close the recapitalization. The board of directors, then, following the resignation of Massimo Tononi from the presidency, has reviewed the composition of the Nomination Committee: Maria Elena Cappello takes the chair and the newly elected Massimo Egidi it is a part.

THE ANALYSTS. Banca Imi (rating hold on Mps , the target price revision) writes that “at a maximum price increase will be issued 201 million of new shares and the dilution for the current shareholders would be 87%”. “At that price”, calculated analysts, “the bank scambierebbe 0,65 times the tangible book value pro-form in September 2016, then at a premium compared to the average of Italian banks” (0.45 times on December 2016, the simple average, excluding Mps and banca Carige ).

The maximum price of the capital increase and considering a fair value of the junior notes that will be attributed to current members of Mps 427 million euros (on the basis of the estimates of the bank), the value of the shares Mps traded currently on the market would amount to 0.39 euros per share, according to Banca Imi an award is significant compared to the current prices of the stock exchange.

however, remember the broker, the final price of the increase will be defined after a process of bookbuilding and may also be significantly below the maximum of the range, therefore greatly reducing the fair value of the share at the time traded on the market. Experts cotiuano to believe "that the risk of execution of the operation remains high.”

Icbpi reminds us that “the bondholders will have to take a decision before knowing the outcome of the referendum on Constitutional Reform, and the impact of the vote on the Italian stock market”.

Banka Akros stresses in his note that the “risk of running on the entire operation remains high,” aligning itself, in this sense, the opinion today of all the analysts on Mps .

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