On the day after the general meeting of the Monte dei Paschi di Siena the fig tree is left without leaves (ah, the referendum!), but the king is naked, you understand the same. The Sole 24 Ore headline is, "The only plan B is l'State", and explains that it’s very difficult for the market will fail to absorb the request to increase of capital in case you are converted, as by the expectations communicated to the Consob and the market subordinated bonds to a value slightly higher than one billion euro. Another yes or no referendum: no institutional investor is wi lling to commit to buy shares before knowing the outcome of the conversion operation, while volatility and uncertainty are increasing in the markets, especially in view of the decisions monetary policy that may arise from the meetings of December of Fed and Ecb. The risk is that the already difficult rescue operation to take away right in a time of financial turmoil. MontePaschi has reiterated in the meeting not to have a plan B and, indeed, not to have even contemplated the idea of an bail-in, which is serious for a group executive: you cannot manage an operation with a high risk of failure, by touching the iron, and by avoiding to evaluate the possible consequences of a failure because it brings harm.
So if the plan B doesn’t have it in the bank, should have it by the government. And in fact, as we write from time to time, it is approaching the time of the nationalisation MontePaschi, the only option viable is to avoid the Italian banks fall one after the other like skittles, swept away by the crisis of the institution of siena, which, like it or not like it, it is still the third Italian bank. The interesting fact is that, according to the Sole 24 Ore, the government would be able to find the agreement in Brussels on the mode of intervention already in July: "since it is State aid – writes the newspaper Confindustria – would be penalised to the bondholders subordinated (as in the case of the 4 banks saved), with the exception of the retail customers to which, with the already acquired endorsement informal Brussels, would be then refunded bonds ranging in maturity from 2018 onwards". Admitted and not granted that the agreement there is, you don’t understand two things: first, what is the reason for the bondholders to retail are expected to adhere to the conversion offer. If their interests are protected and if they have not already sold their bonds at bargain prices (as many have done in the last days), to the bondholders retail it would be advisable to do not deliver their securities in the offer: in the best case scenario (the increase of the capital goes into the port) will continue to collect the coupons, in the worst-case (the bank is put into resolution, and maybe also snaps the bail-in) debt to be refunded, as is written in the Sun. The second thing that you do not understand is, with what money you would pay for the refunds. the public Funds? Self-assessment of the already tenuous banking system? If he is right, Citi to say that we are in conditions very similar to those of Septemb er 2011, mean that there remain not even the eyes to cry, let alone the money to repay the bondholders the retail…
in the Meantime, while the boat threatens to sink, there is who "of pure spirit of service" you are done pinning the grades of admiral (the commander gave them to the man of Jp Morgan, Marco Morelli). We are talking about Alessandro Falciai, the third largest shareholder of Monte Paschi of Siena, with a little less than 2% of the share capital. The most remarkable thing said by the president of the institute, in the press conference that was held after the shareholders ‘ meeting is not yet decided whether to participate or not to the capital increase with his vote has just helped to launch: "The assessment as to whether to join or not, I will do it at the time of the capital increase". A statement in line with that of the Treasure, that Mps is the first shareholder, with 4%, and that seems to bring together other shareholders to "weight", including the Mps Foundation, which has proposed that Falc iai to the presidency of the institute and only a few days ago halved its stake in the capital, down from 1.5% to 0.7%. A clear signal of confidence on the magnificent and progressive destiny of the bank of siena. But the new president Falciai is really a sample incomparable: unlike the Foundation, the Treasure, and all of the other shareholders large and small of the MontePaschi, he hasn’t lost a penny despite the vertical fall of the ipo because of investor realize what it is – at the time of purchase of the shares has entered into an derived that puts him in the shelter from the fluctuations in the price. An enviable position, his, but maybe not is the right person to ask sacrifices to the creditors that on the choices of the Mps do not even have the opportunity to vote.
