the ROME – The ” yes ” to the constitutional referendum “would be a step forward in the reform process and improve political and economic governance,” prime minister Matteo Renzi collect also the support of the Oecd, after the most recent of the’Economist and in the last weeks of several world leaders, from Us president Obama to German chancellor Merkel. The Oecd shows a broad appreciation of the policies of the government, that “is making progress on structural reforms, including the active policies for the labour market, the public administration and the school system”.
Italian Gdp below 1% for 2017. Even if the Gdp forecasts are not exciting: the growth will stop at 0.8% this year and Italy, as recently stated by Istat, but while in that case there had been a reduction, institute for the analysis of Paris there is no change compared to the previous Economic Outlook. For next year there is a slight scaling instead: the Oecd sees Italian Gdp to 0.9%, 0.1% less compared to September, while for 2018, the forecast remains for a growth of 1%. Italy, like the rest of the world, has the problem of finding a way to escape the “trap of low growth”. Only that in our Country, the problems are even greater: on shooting rests the boulder in front of the suffering that restrains consumer confidence and return on investment. We add to this the geopolitical tensions international migration are the main accordingly) and Brexit.
Yes to greater flexibility. considering the difficulty of our Country, and the need to push in investment, held back by uncertainties but also by the bank credit even at the height of the requests because of the difficulties of the credit system, the Oecd suggests that the demand for greater flexibility on the part of the Italian government to the Eu “is broadly appropriate to the extent that it is used to finance financial policies that lead to growth faster and sustainable.” Considered in fact that the public investments have plummeted 30% since the beginning of the crisis, and which is currently 2.2% of Gdp, the lowest level in 25 years, this is definitely a lever to use to “accelerate growth and help reduce the debt”. Well, in this direction, the multi-annual programme called by the government to make buildings earthquake-proof and also the investments for the “decarbonisation” of the economy. Among the other objectives whic h are a priority for Italy, the Oecd indicates a greater efficiency of the tax system, making it more lightweight for the income steps, and moving the weight towards consumption and real estate property; the fight against poverty, the guarantee of health care quality for children and the elderly.
The trap of low growth. Weigh geopolitical tensions, a problem for all the Countries so much that the world is paying for the past five years of growth below expectations: private investment are weak, the public have slowed down global trade “has collapsed”, they paid the consequences for jobs and wages, that they need to support policies to allow those who perceives them to maintain a standard of acceptable living. The reactions of governments are not at the height of the situation: “A slowdown in the ambitions of the structural policies and the inconsistency have slowed down the dynamism of the business, trapped resources in companies with little production, slowed down the financial institutions and damaged the growth of productivity”. The right answer, for the Oecd, is once again “monetary policies and structural”.
take Advantage of low rates. of Course, for many Countries, there is the objection of the public debt high, remember the Oecd. However, “the current juncture, monetary policy is extraordinarily accommodative, with very low interest rates create a window of opportunity for the introduction of tax initiatives”. Of course, leaving the debt/Gdp ratio unchanged in the long term. The target governments must not be only growth, but also the reduction of inequality. Yes, therefore, investment in education and research and development, in addition to those for public infrastructure.
No protectionism. No to protectionism, which would hinder further growth of the world, would raise prices, impoverirebbe the current standard of living, and probably indebiterebbe further the Countries already in a difficult situation. Maybe then and there, it might seem that protectionism favours the sealing of the work, but would worsen the prospects of the economy and in the long run also the same employment, as in many Countries of the Oecd, 25% of the jobs depend on the foreign demand.
The euro area. After +1.5% in 2015, Gdp growth in the euro area should grow at +1,7% this year and then decreases to +1.6% in 2017. In 2018, the Gdp in the euro area should return to +1,7%.
And the rest of the world. the world’s Gdp, in the 2015 rose 3.1%, expected to fall to 2.9% for this year and then return to climb in 2017 to +3.3% and in 2018 to +3,6%. In the Us, after +2.6% in 2015, the Gdp, says the Oecd, should go down to +1.5% this year. In 2017 is expected to remain at +2.3% and +3% in 2018. In Japan, after +0.6% in 2015, Gdp should grow by +0,8% this year. In 2017 should reach +1%, while in 2018 it should record a growth of +0,8%. After +6.9% in 2015, Gdp in China is expected to fall this year by 6.7%. In 2017 and in 2018 is expected to be respectively +6.4% and +6.1%.
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