the President, after a year of deflation, there are signs of a recovery in consumption and inflation. With what prospects it opens in 2017?
“Also in 2016 in deflation, core inflation, i.e. net of the energy component of the fresh food, rose 0.5% – responds to the president of Istat, Giorgio Alleva -. And now the recovery in prices also affects the entries of the energy. But the most comforting is the increase of 1.8% in purchasing power on a yearly basis”.
The family, however, does not seem to notice it.
“I would say No. The Istat has recorded, after a long period, a first recovery important consumer confidence, while remaining one of our Country’s situation is very heterogeneous, where the part of the families has warned the end of the crisis and the part no, of course not”.
In 2017 it is expected a consolidation of the ripresina of Gdp, which in Italy, however, increases more than in the other european Countries. As you recover this gap?
“Recently, the profile of increase of Gdp is not different from that of the main european Countries, but a gap that is structural has characterized both the recession and the recovery. To overcome it we must take action on several fronts, both from the side of the supply and the demand. A central role is played by the investments in physical capital, in the social and in the public administration”.
Despite the ripresina 2017, presents a critical view of work.
“In fact, the expectation is that employment growth is not higher than the gross domestic product as it has been in the last two years, but in line. Hence the importance of growth and investment, which have recently shown a good trend”.
More investments, even in public?
“Certainly the public component would be very important that a pause in measuring vigorous. The costs for infrastructures and interventions on the territory, in the municipalities, there may come an important contribution”.
it is Necessary to overcome the constraints imposed by Brussels.
“I Believe that now the european Countries have all the elements to understand how the overcoming of these constraints can be an important lever for growth”
The lack of employment encourages poverty. There are 4.5 million individuals in absolute poverty and inequality increase.
“The breakneck growth of inequalities, there is at least a couple of decades. And as explained by the Nobel prize winner Anthony Atkinson, who died only a few days ago, does not depend on a single factor but by many. Is not only caused by income and, therefore, serves not only the intervention, redistributive State. There is also need of policies predistributive, from training to work placement”.
In 2015, for the first time, it has decreased the life expectancy in Italy. It is a trend that will continue? The welfare State no longer holds?
“The reduction of life expectancy in 2015 is linked to an increased mortality due to combinations of cyclical and should be seen as an episodic fact, and not as a broken trend . I don’t expect a repeat in 2016. Italy has the record of 20 thousand centenarians and the oldest woman in the world, with 117 years. As to Welfare, from our analysis emerge in both the public finance constraints is the scarcity of informal networks. We can’t rely very much on our traditional family network. Working mothers with small children or young people without a job, the elderly, the disabled, lead to a narrowing of the network of those who can take care of others. Then are central to the public services that enable the care of the elderly and care of the small to allow mothers to work. On this you need to invest, also by undoing, where possible, the constraints of public finance”.
To look with optimism to the future of what to aim for?
“our production system has maintained and developed a high level of competition. This resilience has maintained a growth potential is still great. The human capital and the strength of youth yet unexpressed are our other great resources, but serves a strategic design of policy”.
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January 5, 2017 (amending the January 5, 2017 | 23:15)
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