Banks: the recovery strengthens – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on July 26, 2015 at 8:11.

ROME

Italy, tests of economic convergence with the euro zone partners. It is what is obtained by the forecast scenario of the last report Afo, developed by ABI as a synthesis of reports of the major lending institutions. In the framework presented yesterday, the economic growth should be 0.7% in 2015 (in line with the estimates of the government) and then climb the next two years at about the same rate as our partners, with an increase in GDP of ’1.6% in 2016 and 2017. This would be for our country, the first time since the beginning of the new millennium in which growth is in line with the performance of the rest of the eurozone.

Behind this rather optimistic approach is the assumption that the good performance of exports is destined to last over time and the possibility of a significant contribution from domestic demand. In particular, consumption should benefit from the rise in real disposable income (+ 0.9% on average in the period 2015-2017). This should be pushed upwards by the recovery in employment and the consolidation of household confidence. The investments, which in the first quarter of 2015 showed signs of awakening, should become the final two years of the forecast the key driver of the recovery.

The role of the real panacea for domestic demand should be played by the ultra-accommodative monetary policy of the ECB. They should move away definitively deflation risks, with an increase in consumer prices in Italy still under the European Union (1.3% against 1.7% on average in the period 2016-17) but in any case well away from negative values ​​d ‘beginning of the year.

The profile of fairly robust recovery will achieve the fiscal targets foreshadowed by Def. And loans to the economy should increase total during the three years of about 120 billion. If the reading of the real economy is in pink, estimates on bank profitability are not the same: the net profits of the banks are expected to amount to the end of 2017 to just over 10 billion, the value corresponding to a return on equity (ROE) 2.6%, more than three times lower than pre-crisis levels, also due to a very slow return of suffering.

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