Wine: collapses Russia, China rises, but Italy thanked the United States – Il Sole 24 Ore

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This article was published on July 24, 2015 at 24:32.

Since this is the wine bar could come to mind: risk bubble for the world market? Some doubt producers and insiders are beginning to get it. Especially it seems to have stopped the ride epochal in just five years – between 2009 and 2014 – had seen the world market to grow by as much as 122%. Now the rally seems to have stopped.

The impact of the Russian crisis
The main problems, as in almost every sector of the economy that points on exports, in the first months of 2015 will call Russia. According to the Wine Monitor Nomisma, the Russian market collapsed between January and May: -35% -25% in value and in quantity. And Italy, in this sense, loses more than a little: for wines made in Italy the decline in exports to Moscow was significant and similar to the average: “Looking to wine packaged – specifies the report Nomisma – l ‘ import value fell by 36%. Not that the competitors have gone better: France has been reduced by 45%, making it clear that the crisis has hit first wines placed on price levels on average higher. ”

Oil and wine, cocktails dangerous
“The devaluation of the ruble following the drop in oil prices has dealt a blow to Russian importers,” says Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor. “Being one of the major oil resources of the country, more than the European sanctions related to Russian-Ukrainian crisis was the collapse in prices of black gold to reduce the spending power of Russians. And this stalled economy and consumption of foreign wines is likely to last much longer. ” Forecasts of economists – says the report Nomisma – indicate an oil price remains low for another two years, an estimate the validity of which has been strengthened by the recent nuclear deal between Iran whose effects include the resumption of exports of this commodity by one of the main producing countries worldwide, resulting in an increase of the product in a market that is already oversupplied.

China back sparkling : continue?
Not all signals, however, are order negative, in fact analysts point to a recovery of the immense (but has not yet expressed its full potential) Chinese market. According to the Wine Monitor, “the first five months of 2015 show a growth in the value of imports of wine amounted to over 50%, mainly driven by still wines and the bulk.” Good for Italy? Not really, because it is Australia doing the lion’s share (+ 134%), while Italian wines must make do with a + 18%. “At this point – said Nomisma -, the hope of all is that this trend will be consolidated and that the dreaded” bubble “that hovers on the Chinese stock market does not impact on the real economy of the country.” Recent data on the prospects of the Chinese economy, however, does not seem to be too reassuring.

Good old America
Good news, especially in key tricolor come from the United States, where our wines grew by 10% thanks to performance of Prosecco (+ 48%) that seems almost unstoppable. “A successful market that is affecting even the British market, where this wine is literally depopulating: + 64% of the quantities imported in this period of 2015 compared to the same period last year,” explains Wine Monitor Nomisma.

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