Milan – The recovery is materializing, but the Eurozone is likely to be a long and who will bear results in unemployment only among a long time. It ‘as said the IMF in its report on the euro, which states that “without a significant acceleration of growth, it will take 10 years to nearly 20 years in Spain and Portugal and Italy to reduce the unemployment rate to pre-crisis levels. ” The establishment of Washington points out that unemployment in the single currency area “is high” and that “it probably will be for some time.” Conclusions on which jumps the CGIA Mestre, which highlights as from 2007 to the first quarter of 2015 in Italy have lost 932,000 jobs. According to the analysis of the Association of craftsmen, the regions most affected were those in the South: in Sicily the employed decreased by 168,000 units, to 129,000 in Campania and Puglia 100,000. In all southern regions the reduction in employment has affected 580,000 workers (62.2 per cent of the total). The Italian situation. The unemployment rate, explains again the IMF, “it is expected to remain higher than during the crisis in Italy”. In our country in particular, it is estimated that the “natural rate of unemployment” – defined as the rate of unemployment stable inflation (NAIRU) – “remains higher than that seen during the crisis.” For comparison, in France will in the medium term to levels equal to those during the crisis, while in Spain the NAIRU “will drop significantly compared to unprecedented levels but remain above 15% over the medium term”. At the beautiful country, coming out of three years of recession, the Fund recommends five types of interventions. Jobs Act and Liability Act of judges are referred to as positive steps, then follow the recommendation: “The adoption and implementation of the planned reform of the public”; the second deals with “further measures to improve the efficiency of civil justice” rationalizing the types of cases that reach the Supreme Court, allowing further specialization of courts and pressing the accelerator on the project for the development of indicators on the performance of the courts. The third recommendation includes, in addition to the strengthening of policies under the Jobs Act, “legislation and the implementation of practical measures to reshape” social safety nets “in a universal system of conditional support to the job search and training.” The fourth recommendation of the fund to Italy concerns a “decentralization of wage bargaining to allow greater flessbilità in domestic contracts”. Finally, the IMF calls for rapid approval and implementation of the law on the annual competition to deal with existing regulatory barriers in key sectors such as retail and transport. And the Eurozone. The recovery in the single currency “is getting stronger”, but the euro area “is vulnerable to adverse shocks” and remain the risks of “stagnation” related to a prolonged period of low growth and inflation. The IMF fears that Greece could still leave a contagion for European neighbors, meanwhile confirms estimate of GDP growth in the euro zone to 1.5% for 2015 and 1.7% for 2016. “The weak outlook medium-term and the limited room for maneuver makes the eurozone vulnerable to shocks that could lead to a prolonged period of low growth and inflation “, said the Fund explaining that to avoid the risk of stagnation would be necessary to put in place reforms that address the structural gaps in labor markets, product and capital markets. The economic recovery struggles to turn into employment recovery: the high rate of youth unemployment could damage the potential of human capital and lead to a ‘ lost generation ‘, lost generations for the IMF. “Despite recent improvements – it emphasizes the Fund – the unemployment rate remains above 11% in euro and close to 25% in Greece and Spain. The share of long-term unemployment continues to rise, increasing the risk of a ‘erosion of capacity “. The MEF replica – THE Ministry of Economy disputes the IMF stating, in a statement, that the estimate about 20 years,” not It takes into account the structural reforms “implemented by the government,” for example the reform of the labor market and the reduction of taxation on labor, or those that are being implemented (for example, the efficiency of public administration.) methodology it uses forecasts of GDP growth for that, conservatively, do not take into account the effect of the reforms “. So the Ministry of Economy said in a statement the IMF Article IV report on the Eurozone. “In addition – adds the ministry – the effect of GDP growth on employment (the ” coefficient of Okun ‘) is based on past experience, that pre-reform, and therefore does not take into account the effect that the reforms will on equal employment growth. The data on the labor market in recent months seem to confirm the impact of joint reforms and taxation, with results better than expectations “.
- Arguments:
- IMF
- unemployment
- Eurozone
- crisis
- economic crisis
- Economic recovery
- Starring:
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