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This article was published on July 30, 2015 at 11:25.
The last change is the 30 July 2015 at 11:55.
GDP negative for the seventh consecutive year, with growth from 2001 to 2013 was less half that of Greece. Record gap to 53.7% of GDP per capita than the rest of the country. Investments continue to fall. Industry to collapse, with added value plunged 38.7% from 2008 to 2014. Women and young people out of the labor market. Births blocked, heralding a “demographic tsunami.” And a risk of all: “The depletion of human resources, business and financial might cause the South to engage the new growth and can turn the crisis into a cyclical permanent underdevelopment.” It is merciless photography economy of the South emerging from advances SVIMEZ Report 2015, presented today in Rome.
GDP per capita, the gap is at 2000 levels
In 2014, the GDP of the South, according SVIMEZ, fell by 1.3% slowing so the fall of 2013 (-2.7%) but decreasing by more than a point higher than in the North (-0.2% ). He counted the most unfavorable dynamics of domestic demand, both for household consumption (plummeted by 13.2% 2008 to 2014) and for investment, fell by 38% and even 59.3% in industry. It weighed the crisis, more than anywhere else: the data show that eased in most Italian regions, but much less so in the south. Between 2008 and 2014 the South has lost 13% of GDP, about double the Centre-North (-7.4%). And the gap in GDP per capita between the Centre-North and South reached last year the lowest point in 15 years (53.7%), returning to the levels of 2000.
Performance by far the worst of Greece
From 2001 to 2014, the cumulative growth rate of Greece amounted to 1.7%. The most negative performance of the entire eurozone, but never as the South of Italy: -9.4% compared to + 1.5% in the Centre-North.
The malaise of the world production
They affect the figures on the industry, for the aforementioned investment plummeted by 59.3% from 2008 to 2014, more than triple the heavy drop recorded in the Centre-North (-17.1%), and a decline of 35% of value added, compared with -17.2% in the rest of Italy. In the same period fall also construction (-47.4% investments, -38.7% value added) and services (-33% investments, -6.6% value added). Not better for agriculture: investments -38%. Negative also exports: in 2014 fell by 4.8% against growth of 3% in the Centre-North. It fell by half in the South the benefits to businesses of the national total, they were 63.5% in 2008, became 33.2% in 2013. The danger, for SVIMEZ, is already reported in the Report 2014: a ‘desertification industrial. “
The work that is not there: in 2014 occupied under 6,000,000
inevitable reflections on employment. In the years of crisis in the South it fell by 9%, over six times more than in the Centre-North. 811mila of people who have lost their jobs between 2008 and 2014, well 576mila are living in the south. That focuses on just 26% of those employed in Italy but 70% of the losses caused by the recession. In 2014 only the South has lost 45 thousand people, coming to 5.8 million jobs, below the psychological threshold of 6 million and reaching the lowest level since at least 1977, the year from which they are available time series Istat. A test – explains SVIMEZ – “the growth process never took off” and “level of landslide of southern labor market.”
Alarm women and young people
There is a specific alarm concerning women (works only 20.8% against a EU average of 51%) and young people : between 2008 and 2014, the South lost 622 thousand places among the under 34 (31.9%) while it has earned 239 thousand among the over 55. For those under 24 in 2014, the unemployment rate was close to 56%, against 35.5% in the Centre-North. He speaks for itself given the neet on (those who do not study and do not work) in 2014 in Italy increased by 25% compared to 2008, reaching 3.5 million. Nearly two million are southern.
No incoming “tsunami” demographic
To this was added the declining birth rate, which is not signs of stopping (even foreigners are starting to make fewer children), and the migration to central and northern that from 2001 to 2014 has affected over 1.6 million people. “A plot perverse”, defines SVIMEZ. “The South will be affected in the coming years – warns the report – by a demographic upheaval, a tsunami of unforeseeable consequences, destined to lose 4.2 million people over the next 50 years, compared to a growth of 4.6 million in the Centre -North “.
One in three people at risk of poverty
The result is poverty: 2011-2014 absolutely poor families have increased in Italy by 37, 8% in the South and 34.4% in the Centre-North. But in 2013 one in three people in the South were at risk of poverty, compared with one in ten in the Centre-North. Sicily and Campania regions where the risk is higher. Nearly 62% of southern earn less than 12 thousand euro per year, compared with 28.5% in the Centre-North. Yet another face of a country “increasingly divided and unequal.”
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