The world of wine imports in the first five months of 2015 shows light and shadows. The lights cover a newfound China whose import flows after a disappointing 2014 seem to have recovered so convinced (+ 51% in value, + 38% in volume over the same period last year), the shadows instead are positioned on Russia, by contrast, sees collapse wine purchases
from abroad by more than 35% in value and 25% in quantity.
“The devaluation of the ruble following the decline oil prices have dealt a blow to Russian importers, “said Denis Pantini, head of Nomisma Wine Monitor. “Being one of the major oil resources of the country, more than the European sanctions related to the Russian-Ukrainian crisis was the collapse in prices of black gold to reduce the spending power of Russians. And this stalled economy and consumption of wines and ministries is likely to last much longer. ” Economists’ forecasts indicate an oil price remains low for another two years, an estimate of the validity of which has been strengthened by the recent agreement on the Iranian nuclear issue between the effects of which include the resumption of exports of this commodity from one of the main countries producers in the world, resulting in increased product in a market that is already oversupplied. Result: In a market where wine imports have grown by 122% in just five years (between 2009 and 2014), the dream placed by exporters of wine from around the world of a new Eldorado threatens literally vanish. Even for Italian wines the decline in Russia was significant and similar to the average: looking to wine packaged, the import value from Italy fell by 36%. Not that the competitors have gone better.
France has been reduced by 45%, making it clear that the crisis has hit first wines placed on price levels on average higher. But this reduction in commodity prices had no effect on the ruble only New Zealand, Australia, Brazil -seppur are living in a less traumatic and sudden – a similar devaluation of their currencies. In these cases and in particular for New Zealand and Australia, two of the biggest wine exporters in the world, reducing the purchasing power of its currency can only enhance the competitiveness of its wines, thus making life more complicated for Italian producers and Europeans.
Instead of Russia, the other big emerging market par excellence, namely China, seems to have recovered from the fall recorded in 2014. The first five months of 2015 show a growth in the value of ‘ imports of wine amounted to over 50%, mainly driven by still wines and the bulk. In this case is Australia doing the lion’s share (+ 134%), while Italian wines must make do with a + 18%. At this point, the hope of all is that this trend will be consolidated and that the dreaded “bubble” that hovers on the Chinese stock market does not impact on the real economy of the country. Leaving aside the emerging and turning a look at the more established markets of particular note was the 23% of the value of imports in the United States connected to a + 2% in volume (thereby showing how most of that growth should talk about tightness of the revaluation of the dollar against the euro, as this increase in estimated local currency results in a slight reduction of 0.5%). In this case, the performance of Italian wines are above average for the market, an increase in volume of 10%, largely due to the “phenomenon” Prosecco that has driven imports of sparkling Italian recorded up to a 48% larger amount.
A successful market that is affecting even the British market, where this wine is literally depopulating: + 64% of the quantities imported in this period of 2015 compared to the same period last year. Finally, a look at the segment of bulk wine. “After in 2014 flooded the world market with its overproduction resulting from a more than generous harvest in 2013 thus pulling down prices of all the bulk, including Italian, Spain does not yet seem satisfied – concludes Pantini – and also in this part of 2015 reveals an increase in export volumes of bulk wine 19%, while continuing its strategy of reducing sales prices (-14% compared to last year). “
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