Italy deficit by 2018 double the number of estimates – Wall Street Italia

BRUSSELS (WSI) – arrived from Brussels on an ice-cold shower for the accounts of the Italian, with the publication by the european Commission of its economic forecast that does not promise anything good for our government. The estimates of Gdp and the public finances were revised downwards. The commissioner for economic Affairs Pierre Moscovici has however, once again, closed one eye, leaving hope that there are no drastic failures in the future. Sure, there is that the Eu has judged that the budget plan 2017 presented by the government there are no exceptional elements such as to justify a "refusal" immediately from the Eu.

But the figures speak for themselves and show a deterioration. The growth of the third economy in the euro area is "destined to continue at a pace modest while the persistent constraints on the financial conditions and the uncertainty hamper a recovery stronger." For this year, the autumn forecasts of the Eu speak of an increase in Gdp of 0.7%, while the 2017 is expected to 0.9%, less than the +1% planned by the government Renzi. Six months ago, Brussels pointed to a +1,1% this year and +1.3% to the next one. In 2018, the prediction is to a more 1%. As for the deficit, the deficit will be two-fold higher of the amount estimated by the government in 2018.

The sluggish growth, the Achilles ‘ heel of the Italy since twenty years, does not help to improve the public finances: the deficit is now expected at 2.4% of Gdp this year and next year, while it will mark an increase of up to 2.5% of Gdp in 2018. Six months ago, it was estimated to have a deficit-Gdp to 2.4% in 2016, but then to 1.9% in 2017. Even more serious is the worsening of the public debt, which is expected to remain at 133% of Gdp this year and then to the 133,1% in 2017 and 2018. Six months ago, was expected to 132,7 percent this year and to eur 131.8% the next.

as it makes The Press, growth estimates for Italy provided by the European Union are much smaller than those provided by the Pier Carlo Padoan. The minister of economy and finance after the meeting of the Ecofin, the meeting between the finance ministers of the euro area Countries , held yesterday afternoon, had allowed to expect "minor differences" compared to the forecast, but not "significant deviations". According to the rumors, however, significant deviations there are with regard to deficits and debt that are out of route with a worrying deficit in 2018, according to estimates by Brussels to 2.5%, against the decline to 1.2% expected from Rome. A trend that will lead to the objective of the balanced budgets in 2019 totally out of reach. Also as for the debt, according to estimates in Brussels in 2017 will not begin the decline predicted by Renzi, on the contrary, the next year there will be an increase, albeit minimum, and i n 2018 will remain stable.

The economic forecasts had expected it to be this morning at 11, but the victory of Donald Trump to the american presidential elections has upset not only the markets but also the european policy agenda and by the Commission make it known that the economic forecasts of the Eu countries, which are fundamental to the verdicts on the financial statements in view of 2017, to slip to 16 November next.