Friday, November 11, 2016

S&P on the referendum: no risk to win not if reforms continue. Cut the estimates of Gdp declined to +0.9% – Sun 24 Hours

If on the 4th of December, the constitutional referendum will pass "this could contribute to the stability and effectiveness of the Italian government". She says in an S&P Global Ratings, and our Country has confirmed the rating "BBB-" and stable outlook, while cutting growth estimates for the current year and the next. However, if the opposite of’ lose it’, the rejection of the referendum, according to S&P "should not be significant for the estate, the credit rating of Italy to less that leads to a change in the direction of the structural reforms". According to S&P the reforms to work, education and the banking sector "demonstrate th e determination of the administration of the president of the Council Matteo Renzi on the floor of the program of reforms" and that "despite a thin majority and a tough opposition, even from within the coalition government".



The BTp back to 2%, as in July 2015. That’s why the rates go up

S&P remember that other reforms such as that of the public administration and of the judicial system (designed to improve efficiency and reduce the backlog of cases that are still open) are in the process of development. "Their progress, however, seems to be generally slow and unbalanced". S&P – that has cut growth estimates for Italy to a +0.9% in 2016 and +0.8% in 2017 – does not expect an acceleration before the next general election.

Cut Gdp estimates
Confirming the rating "BBB-" and stable outlook, S&P Global Ratings has cut estimates of real Gdp growth of our Country to a +0.9% in 2016, up from the previous +1,1%; for 2018, the agency expects +0.8% and +1.3 percent, as calculated in the past. In spite of this, the S&P "expects the economic recovery of the Country will remain’ broadly on track".

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor Plus)

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