ROME – As in a beauty contest, the budget law was submitted to Parliament in reviews of the technical bodies. The analysis of the Bank of Italy was rather bland, more careful to describe the measures that really express an opinion. L'Istat has provided the opinion, the more positive, while the'Office of the Parliamentary Budget, the authority responsible for the control of public accounts, has opted for a fail stop. The picture that comes out has more shadows than lights, especially with regard to the sustainability of the public budget and the ability of the measures to help the categories that are most in need.
The measures that have received the greatest acclaim are those which are aimed to stimulate investment, for example the "Industry 4.0" and the tax credit for expenditure on research and development. The Bank of Italy underlines, as these policies seek to stimulate the growth o f productivity, which in recent decades has been the true Achilles ‘ heel of the Italy. Also, the Istat defines the interventions on their investments, "important", i.e. 0.1 percentage points and their impact on growth.
The institute is led by John Breeds he adds, however, that the measures should be able to reward most of the larger companies and the more innovative at the expense of those less technologically advanced. The government thus chose to reward those companies that in recent years have been less affected by the recession and seem more able to withstand the confrontation with the realities of production in foreign. It is an industrial policy more laissez-faire compared to the old subsidies, which often ended up to help companies decotte.
The judgment on the ability of the maneuver to promote equity, however, is less uniform. Istat says that the extension of the audience of retirees who will receive the fourteenth wil l go mainly to help the less affluent of the population, since more than 80% of the higher spending is intended for the 60% poorest. However, are the same as numbers of the Institute to show how the measure is not well-calibrated: the number of middle class families that will benefit from the increase is greater than that of the nuclei of the poorest. The Upb estimate that 10% of the poorest households is fed less than 5% of the total benefit.
The main problem of the budget law, however, is concerned with the sustainability of accounts. The judgment of the Upb is, from this point of view, a very severe one. The authority led by Giuseppe Pisauro note, first of all, as estimates of the growth of government, although in line with those of the forecasters and independent, are rather optimistic in the light, for example, the risk of a slowdown in world trade. This judgment is, after all, the less worrying: the forecasts are, by their nature, imperfect, and also other organs, including the bank of Italy, judge the 1% growth expected by the government for 2017 is "not unreachable".
A risk far greater, according to Pisauro and colleagues, regarding the decision to finance a portion as substantial increases in spending with measures lifetime, such as the so-called "scrapping" of the folders Equitalia, or auction of rights of use of frequencies. On the first, the Upb has a scathing judgment also from the distributional point of view. "The measure – said Pisauro – is set up as an amnesty, which ends up rewarding the tax payers less worthy, and this may contribute to weaken the sense of obedience, fiscal of the audience of taxpayers".
The Upb then proceeds to evaluate the operation from the point of view of the european budget rules: almost none of them is respected, putting Italy at risk of an infringement procedure by the European Commission. The calls of today with the Italy of the presiden t Jean-Claude Juncker, known as the rules go, respected by all, therefore they are feedback in the same numbers, of the authority on the public accounts of the Italian.
The greatest danger, however, comes from debt. The Upb note as a drop-down of the public debt in the medium term is possible only with a policy of "primary surpluses", i.e., expenditure savings, net of accrued interest, much more courageous than that followed by the government of Matteo Renzi. This is also the message of the bank of Italy, which underlines that "the control of current primary expenditure" is "an absolute priority".
the judgment on The manoeuvre of this year is therefore quite varied, but, more than a beauty contest, the public accounts of tomorrow may be a true house of horrors.
- Topics:
- the law of fiscal 2017
- Banca d’italia
- istat
- Upb
- Starring:
- John Breeds
- Giuseppe Pisauro
- Jean-Claude Juncker
- Matteo Renzi
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