After Brexit the victory of Donald Trump to the presidency of the Usa is the second “black swan”, i.e. the event that is unpredictable, surprising the markets, in less than 5 months. Now, as then, investors have made find unprepared, hence the violent reactions that we are witnessing in these minutes and which will last probably a few days. The uncertainty, compared to the continuity that would have been the election of Hillary Clinton scares for the moment, the markets. In the next few weeks however, it is necessary to understand the true intentions of the newly-elected Trump before to target investments.
The race to the titles refuge is to widen the spread. Flying Treasury
Shares
The shock of the immediate price lists, that they had absolutely priced the victory of the Trump (as well as in its time it was the case for the Brexit) is a reaction rather obvious. Looking over the corner you can analyze the potential impact on the individual sectors tied to those that seem to be the guidelines of the new occupant of the White House. Trump has, for example, is said to want to spend the double of its rival in infrastructure, which could promote the titles related to the construction industry.
in The same way, the hostility towards environmental policies would be able to give a boost to the producers of fossil fuels and curb the sector of clean energies such as solar and wind power. In general, the opposition of the Trump to further trade liberalisation on a global scale, and his favour to customs duties and trade restrictions will tend to support the productive sectors of the national at the expense of international competition, the chinese in the first place.
“The Donald” is shaking Europe
Bonds
according To many observers, the financial to the unpredictable victory of the Trump could be the only, or almost a factor able to block the long-awaited rise in interest rates by the Federal Reserve in December. To look at the future on the Fed Funds, the probability of a “close” by the end of the year have been reduced from over 70% to 50%, and also for this reason that we witness in these early stages to a fall of the yields on Treasury securities U.s. State. To encourage a movement of this kind is also the search for a “refuge” in a moment of escape from the risk, and it is under this aspect that should be evaluated in the contemporary wave of purchases towards the Bund (and the consequent decline in rates).
More contrasty, the possible reaction of the BTp: the wave of risk-off tend to widen the spread with Germany, but to this must be added the contemporary decline of the general level of interest rates. At the time being prevailing in the first force, since the differential Italy-Germany jumped more than 160 basis points, but the sales on the BTp are all in all limited. The first test, the most significant you will have in the next two days in which there are new auctions of the Treasury for BoT-BTp.
Donald Trump, who is the new president of the Usa
Currency
the first reaction of The dollar has been losing positions against all other currencies, a direct consequence of the drop in the interest rates of the Treasury and of the possible change of the outlook on the moves of the Fed. In the long run you will need to evaluate the full effects of the policies of the Trump: on paper, according to analysts, its agenda might in fact point towards a sort of de-globalization, and negative for the us productivity, and thus also for its growth in the medium-to long-term. The circumstance would tend to weaken the greenback, but not all analysts are in agreement on this point.
the Most obvious is the negative reaction of emerging Countries and their currencies. Beyond the case of the mexican peso, which for weeks has been the true barometer of expectations about the Us elections because of the clear intention of the Trump to review the policies on immigration and that is tracollando in these minutes, in the long run all emerging markets seem destined to suffer. The trend to de-globalisation would also be negative for commodities and for oil in particular, thus putting even more pressure on manufacturers of emerging Countries.
Gold
If it is true that Trump is equivalent to greater uncertainty, there is no surprise of the reaction of the gold, he raised his head every time that the surveys showed a recovery of the republican candidate, and it is more reason for doing it at the moment (+3% above $ 1,300 an ounce). The climate of risk aversion on the markets is added then the weak dollar to give further support to the yellow metal, which according to analysts could exceed the highest of the year and return to the levels of 2014, close to $ 1,400 per ounce.
© Reproduction reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment